DanielFilan

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.209	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
72.654	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
62.006	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
35.691	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
32.568	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
27.808	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
25.492	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
23.794	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
22.276	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
20.395	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
19.395	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
18.026	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
18.010	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
12.016	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
11.988	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
9.865	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
9.341	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
8.906	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
6.966	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
5.122	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
4.961	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
3.979	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
1.238	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
0.503	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
0.424	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
0.243	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
0.098	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-0.436	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
-10.471	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-14.816	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-16.602	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-17.999	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-25.063	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary