gjm

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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18.84		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
91.604	79.9%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
68.883	99.6%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
64.929	99.8%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
60.229	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
57.934	98.3%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
57.344	98.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
53.472	95.0%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
47.300	95.8%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
46.851	69.7%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
45.698	98.4%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
44.684	66.9%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
44.135	86.5%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
43.601	74.8%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
43.095	79.5%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
42.279	99.8%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
40.173	100.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
39.405	98.6%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
38.647	60.6%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
36.354	100.0%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
36.022	98.4%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
34.924	60.1%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
34.161	91.0%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
32.162	98.5%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
31.518	98.8%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
30.029	99.3%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
29.519	99.8%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
29.122	73.0%	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
27.928	99.9%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
27.045	74.3%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
26.941	95.7%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
26.583	40.0%	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
25.038	89.9%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
24.515	88.4%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
24.191	99.0%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
23.486	88.1%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
22.994	71.2%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
22.917	99.3%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
22.709	43.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
22.283	99.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.159	22.2%	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
20.137	99.1%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
20.023	95.1%	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
19.366	97.6%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
18.978	75.8%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.901	74.3%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
18.649	27.3%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
18.197	84.1%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
17.663	83.5%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
17.441	85.4%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
16.831	99.5%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
16.730	74.1%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
16.724	57.0%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
16.429	99.9%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
16.239	99.9%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
15.580	45.8%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
15.105	61.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
15.035	81.7%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
14.661	88.4%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
14.014	23.6%	Will there be 10 million autonomous cars in the US before there are 1 million in-car augmented reality users?	Binary
13.449	99.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
13.396	99.9%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
13.102	97.4%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
12.944	99.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
12.852	77.1%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
12.116	98.7%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
11.283	23.6%	Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
11.164	99.9%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
11.100	99.2%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
10.595	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
10.508	99.8%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
9.877	45.0%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
9.793	99.4%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
9.450	92.5%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
8.295	99.9%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
7.854	100.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
6.905	86.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
5.932	98.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
5.710	53.8%	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
5.374	68.9%	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
5.344	86.6%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
5.259	48.8%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
5.224	62.1%	by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?	Binary
5.081	13.9%	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
5.063	45.0%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
4.872	20.9%	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
4.193	10.1%	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
4.097	99.6%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.882	81.1%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
3.847	9.9%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
3.715	30.3%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
2.897	99.9%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
2.724	77.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
2.302	55.6%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
2.042	21.5%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
1.582	99.4%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
1.330	48.2%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
1.097	99.8%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
0.853	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
0.830	3.1%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.801	88.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.605	2.2%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
0.523	4.5%	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
0.507	9.8%	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
0.231	0.6%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-0.685	70.7%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-2.073	79.2%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-2.312	77.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-2.397	84.4%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-3.020	99.8%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
-3.373	13.7%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
-5.302	96.7%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-5.313	91.9%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
-5.975	94.6%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-7.644	80.8%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-7.799	99.9%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-8.327	96.6%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-10.598	99.9%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-11.109	99.8%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
-12.984	99.9%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-13.515	99.7%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-17.544	97.6%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
-18.884	99.9%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-20.754	99.8%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-24.414	90.4%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
-30.448	92.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-31.100	99.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-35.049	92.6%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous