James

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.546	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
61.861	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
54.490	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
44.760	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
40.393	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
38.075	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
33.499	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
26.859	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
26.374	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
23.952	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
22.236	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
21.160	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
19.916	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
17.386	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
15.161	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
14.628	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
14.410	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
13.993	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
11.721	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
11.694	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
11.367	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
10.963	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
10.896	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
10.791	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
10.275	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
10.174	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
9.992	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
9.757	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
9.471	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
8.415	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
7.467	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
6.477	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
5.928	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
5.595	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
5.448	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
4.263	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
3.893	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
2.839	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
2.693	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
1.897	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
1.811	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
1.726	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
1.678	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
1.430	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
-0.096	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-0.371	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-0.488	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
-1.510	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
-2.523	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
-4.192	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
-4.542	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-5.952	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-6.731	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
-7.947	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
-17.364	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-21.800	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
-30.366	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
-31.684	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-36.559	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary