James

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

5.925	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.698	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
98.461	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
77.485	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
59.296	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
54.250	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
48.901	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
47.703	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
43.490	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
43.124	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
42.984	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
42.517	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
35.598	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
34.776	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
34.425	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
34.324	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
33.477	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
32.320	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
30.397	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
29.749	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
27.225	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
27.153	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
25.840	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
25.142	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
24.661	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
23.041	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
22.397	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
22.115	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
21.310	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.269	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
19.351	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
18.620	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
18.227	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
18.147	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
17.336	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
16.823	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
16.716	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
16.228	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
16.220	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
16.146	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
16.132	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
15.729	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
15.551	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
14.499	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
14.418	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
14.412	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
13.964	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
13.224	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
12.331	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
12.164	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
11.752	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
11.238	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
10.943	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
10.566	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
10.345	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
10.154	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
10.144	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
9.930	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
9.868	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
9.584	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
9.057	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.055	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
9.022	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
9.012	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.710	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
8.661	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
8.462	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
8.455	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
8.260	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
8.253	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
8.065	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
7.990	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
7.863	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
7.745	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
7.643	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
7.577	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
7.248	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
7.223	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
7.193	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
7.191	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
7.075	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
7.010	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
6.955	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
6.738	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
6.427	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
6.402	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
6.178	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
6.038	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
6.029	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
5.519	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
5.366	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
5.273	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.204	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
5.141	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
5.136	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
4.748	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
4.672	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
4.294	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
4.237	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
4.151	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
3.922	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
3.779	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
3.447	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
3.443	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
3.324	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
3.188	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.092	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
3.091	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.019	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
2.994	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
2.925	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
2.766	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
2.686	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
2.581	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
2.399	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
2.335	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
2.258	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
2.253	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
2.102	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
2.101	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.927	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
1.898	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
1.799	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
1.784	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
1.661	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
1.598	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
1.587	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
1.558	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.464	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
1.351	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
1.281	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.267	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
1.212	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
1.156	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
1.130	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
1.123	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
1.073	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.069	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
1.017	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
0.979	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.956	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.949	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.919	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
0.914	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
0.911	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
0.906	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
0.856	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
0.808	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
0.783	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
0.754	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
0.740	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.734	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.704	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.586	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
0.575	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
0.566	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
0.510	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
0.494	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
0.456	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
0.412	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.337	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
0.277	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
0.236	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.230	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
0.214	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
0.205	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
0.157	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
0.155	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
0.152	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
0.142	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.138	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
0.126	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.123	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
0.108	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
0.102	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
0.073	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
0.049	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
0.026	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.008	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
0.005	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-0.025	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.028	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
-0.043	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
-0.069	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
-0.077	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
-0.109	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-0.162	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-0.183	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
-0.188	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.193	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
-0.255	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
-0.276	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
-0.348	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-0.358	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
-0.476	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-0.582	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-0.748	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-0.816	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
-0.850	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-0.918	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-0.936	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
-0.973	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
-0.991	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-1.074	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-1.635	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-1.695	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-1.802	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-2.047	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
-3.599	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-3.689	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-4.848	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-5.307	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
-6.317	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-6.698	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-7.258	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
-7.823	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-9.063	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-9.228	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-9.404	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-10.729	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-10.892	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-11.780	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-12.391	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
-13.311	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-16.103	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-16.767	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-17.560	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
-17.675	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-21.039	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-21.048	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
-21.871	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-25.096	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-26.247	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-26.776	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-30.471	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
-36.959	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-37.413	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-40.351	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-54.425	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary