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User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.23	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.800	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
65.377	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
56.570	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
52.437	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
41.924	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
36.463	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
33.302	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
29.673	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
29.382	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
25.793	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
19.479	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
19.034	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
17.726	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
17.005	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
16.020	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
16.005	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
14.920	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
13.844	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
13.608	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
13.093	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
11.732	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
10.197	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
8.906	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
8.470	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
8.446	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
8.143	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
8.032	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
7.444	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
7.180	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
7.127	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
7.081	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
7.067	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
6.633	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
6.537	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
6.505	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
4.814	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
4.364	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
4.128	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
4.073	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
3.358	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
3.294	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
2.690	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
1.388	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
1.060	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
1.043	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
0.474	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
-1.427	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-1.554	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
-2.362	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-2.750	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
-3.995	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-4.989	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-7.498	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-9.862	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
-10.958	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
-15.087	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-20.409	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
-35.355	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary