Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.765	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.536	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
92.278	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
88.725	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
85.122	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
82.385	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
82.087	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
78.326	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
78.086	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
75.400	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
75.267	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
74.089	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
72.977	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
71.989	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
67.597	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
66.908	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
65.410	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
64.563	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
61.231	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
59.005	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
58.748	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
58.662	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
56.410	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
56.296	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
52.841	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
52.773	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
51.124	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
50.184	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
49.731	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
49.464	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
47.517	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
45.019	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
44.374	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
43.983	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
43.568	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
43.054	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
41.805	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
41.760	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
41.388	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
41.265	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
40.647	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
40.009	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
39.940	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
39.671	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
39.075	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
38.454	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
38.122	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
37.971	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
37.714	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
37.578	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
36.883	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
35.874	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
35.743	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
35.663	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
35.634	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
35.470	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
35.375	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
35.190	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
34.989	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
34.891	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
34.533	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
34.462	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
34.040	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
33.790	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
33.579	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
32.043	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.896	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
31.407	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
31.405	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
31.155	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
30.732	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
30.499	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
30.498	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
30.342	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
30.341	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
29.794	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
29.095	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
28.985	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
28.804	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
28.782	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
28.728	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
28.432	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
27.817	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
27.566	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
27.280	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
27.260	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
27.142	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
26.971	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
26.879	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
26.566	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
26.467	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
26.392	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
26.320	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
25.771	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
25.765	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
25.080	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
24.868	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
24.830	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
24.817	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
23.755	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
23.519	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
23.388	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
23.282	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
23.247	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
23.184	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
22.996	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
22.937	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
22.713	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
22.391	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
22.116	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
22.103	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
21.950	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
21.900	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
21.788	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
21.777	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
21.332	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
20.636	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
20.460	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
20.314	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
20.305	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
20.284	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
20.112	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
19.858	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
19.782	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
19.487	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
19.477	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
19.469	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
19.359	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
19.301	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
18.301	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
18.177	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
17.980	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
17.974	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
17.568	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
17.526	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
17.518	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
17.474	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
17.094	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
16.336	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
16.195	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
16.008	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
15.793	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
15.722	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
15.566	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
15.463	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
15.177	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
14.273	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
14.070	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
13.906	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.835	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
13.147	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
13.097	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
12.954	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
12.920	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
12.700	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
12.547	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
12.287	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
12.234	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.219	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
12.207	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
12.187	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
12.167	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
12.095	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
11.873	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
11.641	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
11.260	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
11.117	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
11.090	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
10.755	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
10.749	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
10.614	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
10.372	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
10.005	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
9.858	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
9.854	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
9.807	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.779	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
9.746	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
9.731	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
9.584	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
9.557	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
9.410	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
9.410	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
9.370	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
9.216	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
9.206	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
8.842	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
8.765	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
8.512	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
8.334	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
8.146	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
8.124	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
7.974	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
7.929	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
7.858	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
7.836	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
7.670	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
7.646	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
7.317	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
7.091	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.032	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
6.962	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
6.780	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
6.720	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
6.674	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
6.633	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
6.345	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
6.294	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
6.211	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
6.182	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
5.949	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
5.934	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
5.852	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
5.715	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
5.526	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
5.445	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
5.435	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
5.048	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
4.397	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
4.332	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
4.296	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
4.263	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.258	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
4.244	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
4.092	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
3.965	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
3.841	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.555	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
3.523	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
3.339	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
3.203	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
3.096	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
3.072	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
2.969	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
2.851	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
2.308	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
2.038	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
1.915	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
1.891	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
1.866	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
1.665	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.611	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
1.516	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
1.465	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.354	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
1.279	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.254	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
1.114	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
1.011	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.810	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
0.694	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
0.667	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
0.567	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.536	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.467	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
0.217	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.115	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
0.021	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
-0.126	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-0.230	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
-0.526	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-0.635	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-0.641	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-0.763	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-0.850	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-0.933	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-1.039	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-1.040	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-1.113	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
-1.301	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
-2.360	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-2.906	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-3.345	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-3.587	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-3.892	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
-4.440	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
-4.532	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
-4.579	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-5.330	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
-5.365	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-5.387	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-5.857	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
-6.146	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-7.245	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-8.438	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-9.065	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-9.109	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-9.133	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-9.182	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
-9.690	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
-9.815	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-10.270	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
-10.432	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
-10.474	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
-10.780	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-11.552	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-12.040	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-12.167	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-12.202	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
-13.364	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-14.111	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
-15.033	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-15.049	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
-15.207	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-15.209	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
-15.400	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
-17.311	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-18.939	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-19.127	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
-21.220	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
-22.174	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
-22.360	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
-23.993	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
-24.881	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-27.494	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-27.522	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-29.219	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-29.995	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
-30.572	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-33.781	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
-34.037	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-35.985	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-36.523	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-37.783	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-37.920	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-39.334	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-39.776	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
-41.244	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
-45.248	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-45.430	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-50.815	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
-52.047	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-54.208	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-54.209	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
-60.212	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-64.996	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-73.662	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-83.438	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-92.545	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-97.153	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
-104.374	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-161.101	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-174.256	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-201.040	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
-218.517	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary