isinlor

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.195	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
139.962	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
116.875	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
80.992	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
66.740	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
65.906	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
64.073	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
62.979	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
61.287	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
54.938	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
52.066	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
51.645	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
50.405	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
48.479	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
48.095	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
47.105	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
46.374	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
46.210	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
43.917	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
42.020	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
41.734	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
41.734	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
41.650	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
40.446	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
40.394	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
40.088	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
39.187	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
38.682	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
36.009	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
35.483	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
35.342	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
33.126	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
32.691	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
31.651	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
30.849	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
28.650	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
27.563	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
24.572	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
23.935	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
23.905	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
23.420	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
23.080	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
22.865	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
22.708	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
21.718	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
21.413	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
20.577	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
20.353	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
19.751	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.421	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
19.332	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
18.892	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
17.856	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
17.720	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
17.587	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
16.727	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
16.434	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
15.705	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
15.558	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
15.251	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
15.200	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
15.094	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
15.054	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
14.722	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
13.932	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.745	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
13.402	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
12.328	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
12.294	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
12.286	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
11.612	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
11.232	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
11.130	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
11.010	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
10.979	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
10.892	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
10.288	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
10.147	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
10.071	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
9.767	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
9.677	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.426	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
9.334	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
9.332	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
9.305	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
9.196	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
9.149	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
8.773	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
8.771	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
8.648	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
8.642	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
8.473	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
8.195	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
8.136	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
7.406	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
7.176	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
6.959	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
6.926	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
6.702	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
6.693	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
6.629	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
6.421	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
6.290	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
6.127	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
5.987	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
5.942	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.842	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
5.838	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
5.702	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
5.593	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
5.127	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
4.761	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
4.745	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
4.745	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
4.476	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.165	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
4.050	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
4.015	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
3.998	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.983	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
3.696	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
3.530	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
3.353	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
3.314	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
3.180	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
3.146	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
2.937	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
2.879	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
2.872	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
2.849	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
2.659	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
2.641	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
2.556	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
2.521	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
2.375	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
2.336	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
2.321	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
2.240	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
2.238	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
2.227	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
2.203	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.177	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
2.084	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
2.003	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
1.906	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
1.860	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
1.772	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.654	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
1.567	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
1.526	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
1.520	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
1.519	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
1.435	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
1.428	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
1.294	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.191	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
1.177	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
1.127	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
1.112	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
1.039	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
1.036	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.960	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.954	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
0.894	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
0.890	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
0.858	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.813	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.809	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
0.802	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
0.802	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
0.745	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.738	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
0.730	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
0.718	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
0.709	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.704	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.645	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
0.554	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.525	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.485	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
0.456	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
0.452	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
0.439	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
0.403	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
0.367	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
0.344	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
0.337	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
0.334	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
0.306	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
0.304	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
0.295	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.283	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
0.276	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
0.274	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.253	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
0.253	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
0.237	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.205	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
0.199	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
0.191	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.159	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.143	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
0.108	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.097	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
0.080	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
0.066	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.065	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.060	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.038	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.010	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
0.008	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
0.008	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
-0.004	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-0.012	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-0.013	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-0.073	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
-0.093	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
-0.097	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-0.112	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
-0.162	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-0.174	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
-0.174	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-0.183	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
-0.239	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
-0.253	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.360	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-0.363	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-0.410	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-0.460	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
-0.477	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
-0.507	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
-0.574	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.611	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-0.614	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-0.708	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-0.712	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
-0.815	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
-0.925	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-1.141	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
-1.229	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-1.245	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-1.263	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
-1.568	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
-1.581	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
-1.648	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-1.675	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
-1.695	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-1.818	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
-1.996	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
-2.078	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-2.098	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
-2.339	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
-2.592	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-2.659	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
-2.679	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
-2.728	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
-2.752	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-2.867	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
-2.869	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-3.001	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-3.248	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-3.261	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-3.269	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
-3.305	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-3.453	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
-3.469	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
-3.525	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-3.656	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
-4.611	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
-4.936	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
-5.066	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-5.333	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
-5.624	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
-5.749	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-5.779	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-6.184	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
-6.289	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-6.822	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-6.899	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-6.964	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-7.165	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-7.201	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
-10.736	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
-10.867	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-11.449	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-11.792	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
-12.223	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-12.297	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-12.773	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-18.251	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-18.835	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-19.518	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-22.761	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
-35.264	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-45.061	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-64.634	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous