raven.kopelman

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.769	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
62.376	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
56.665	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
51.948	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
49.933	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
48.890	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
47.140	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
39.358	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
37.393	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
23.658	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
15.537	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
14.513	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
14.427	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
13.099	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
13.055	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
12.033	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
11.822	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
11.503	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
8.638	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
7.823	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
7.276	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
6.755	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
6.381	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
6.344	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
6.141	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
5.791	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
4.842	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
4.649	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
2.913	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
2.851	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
2.516	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
1.637	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
1.599	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
0.845	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
0.773	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
0.216	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
0.087	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
-0.779	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
-1.554	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
-2.075	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
-3.089	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
-6.385	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-7.026	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-8.834	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-9.398	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-10.062	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
-10.237	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
-13.621	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-14.574	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-15.628	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
-19.214	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
-20.134	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
-23.866	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-27.700	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
-29.620	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
-44.461	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-66.112	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary