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User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.284		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
68.995	97.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
62.535	60.7%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
51.537	99.1%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
48.247	93.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
47.074	84.5%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
46.191	99.3%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
40.282	45.3%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
37.154	70.3%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
36.963	97.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
35.859	56.4%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
35.815	67.4%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
34.130	97.5%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
32.692	80.3%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
29.264	98.3%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
29.051	85.9%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
28.973	58.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
25.084	72.9%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
24.738	92.6%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
24.649	98.7%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
24.101	92.5%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
22.580	99.7%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
21.010	93.9%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
20.868	32.6%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
19.010	72.4%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.347	98.9%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
17.606	55.9%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
17.431	95.6%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
17.267	93.6%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
17.034	99.3%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
16.599	67.9%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
14.841	70.9%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
14.779	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.566	99.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
12.223	99.8%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
12.111	96.0%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
11.837	50.6%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
11.800	99.6%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
11.488	87.4%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
11.334	70.6%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
10.139	48.8%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
10.067	81.0%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
8.944	29.9%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
7.924	30.7%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
7.781	56.2%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
7.387	36.6%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
7.372	29.3%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
6.822	94.1%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
6.719	99.7%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
6.444	30.1%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
6.272	21.3%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
6.181	29.9%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
5.620	96.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
5.526	9.1%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
5.030	59.4%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
4.953	29.9%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
4.923	91.2%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
4.532	98.6%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
3.967	98.3%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
3.614	48.7%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
3.540	81.8%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.513	31.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
3.406	88.8%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
3.383	93.2%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
3.350	43.9%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
2.626	16.8%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
2.481	99.8%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
2.475	4.1%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.343	10.3%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
1.936	6.4%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
1.895	90.0%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
1.757	43.9%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
1.732	6.7%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
1.506	24.1%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.274	35.4%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
1.250	5.9%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
1.160	7.5%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
0.996	1.9%	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
0.393	1.3%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.371	2.1%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
0.340	35.6%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
0.320	7.6%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.304	2.3%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.291	9.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
0.204	1.1%	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
0.176	30.2%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
0.124	0.8%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.079	0.7%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.060	0.4%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
0.039	4.9%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
0.035	5.0%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-0.010	10.3%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-0.090	99.1%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
-0.093	45.0%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
-0.130	7.7%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-0.382	1.4%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-0.720	24.6%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-0.854	84.8%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-0.931	58.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-1.093	9.0%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-1.854	33.4%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-2.224	100.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-2.335	2.4%	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
-2.675	98.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-2.831	27.6%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
-2.972	37.3%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-3.091	69.0%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
-3.340	99.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-3.633	99.6%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-3.768	99.6%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-4.092	62.8%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-4.351	99.1%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
-4.418	35.7%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-4.948	79.2%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-5.325	99.6%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
-5.532	80.5%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
-5.577	96.7%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
-5.920	20.8%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-7.032	99.8%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
-7.950	99.4%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
-8.718	27.2%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
-9.424	98.0%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
-10.830	77.6%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
-10.892	98.1%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-11.528	99.7%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
-11.987	50.9%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-12.088	77.4%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-12.498	84.3%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-12.961	91.2%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
-12.994	99.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-14.125	99.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-14.215	91.4%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
-14.261	99.2%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-14.573	51.0%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-14.757	96.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-15.519	99.7%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-15.777	96.0%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
-15.944	99.3%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-16.373	99.5%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
-20.510	99.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-20.723	94.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-29.482	88.4%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-33.607	96.9%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-36.741	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-38.536	99.7%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
-49.194	99.9%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous