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User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.238	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.266	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
48.067	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
42.482	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
38.644	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
38.105	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
37.227	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
36.312	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
36.216	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
35.415	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
34.850	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
33.006	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
31.793	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
31.383	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
31.128	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
30.887	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
30.165	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
29.561	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
27.179	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
26.824	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
26.808	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
24.861	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
24.728	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
24.454	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
24.440	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
24.035	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
23.780	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
23.729	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
22.539	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
22.270	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
21.417	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
20.786	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
20.777	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
20.511	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
20.116	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
19.633	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
18.875	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
17.672	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
17.530	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
17.380	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
16.907	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
16.874	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
16.626	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
15.872	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
15.803	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
15.611	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
14.975	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
14.594	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
14.532	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
14.384	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
14.327	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
14.025	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
13.953	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
13.842	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
13.783	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
13.344	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
12.942	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
12.927	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
12.834	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
12.704	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
12.652	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.278	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
12.181	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
11.982	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
11.011	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
10.846	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
10.391	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
9.900	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
9.790	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
9.527	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.661	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
8.649	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
8.142	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
7.933	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
6.953	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
6.898	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
6.693	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
6.600	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
6.174	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
6.154	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
6.018	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
5.848	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
5.836	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
5.465	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
5.455	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
5.328	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
5.309	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
5.223	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
5.154	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
5.054	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
4.721	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
4.616	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
4.575	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
4.341	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
4.333	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
4.255	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
4.094	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
3.824	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
3.766	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
3.657	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
3.351	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
3.336	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
3.311	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
3.239	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
3.142	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
3.138	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
3.101	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
2.934	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
2.901	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
2.850	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
2.588	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
2.557	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
2.522	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
2.514	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
2.434	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
2.423	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
2.408	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
2.405	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
2.375	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
2.260	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
1.990	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
1.983	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
1.980	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
1.953	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
1.949	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
1.890	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
1.588	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
1.546	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
1.459	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
1.365	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.335	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.285	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
1.210	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
1.117	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
1.002	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
0.986	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
0.934	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
0.762	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.720	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.602	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
0.601	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
0.597	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
0.575	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.556	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.518	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
0.506	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
0.500	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
0.474	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.467	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
0.461	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
0.448	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.426	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.360	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
0.242	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
0.210	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.208	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
0.207	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.173	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
0.150	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
0.146	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
0.115	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
0.104	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.095	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
0.062	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
0.055	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
0.054	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.019	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
0.005	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
-0.018	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
-0.025	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-0.069	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-0.070	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-0.075	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
-0.152	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
-0.172	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
-0.248	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
-0.288	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
-0.330	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
-0.366	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
-0.387	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-0.412	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-0.437	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
-0.597	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-0.620	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-0.637	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-0.718	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
-0.750	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
-0.758	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
-0.831	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-0.878	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-1.042	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
-1.096	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
-1.110	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-1.130	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-1.139	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-1.170	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
-1.181	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
-1.300	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-1.529	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
-1.631	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
-1.666	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-2.185	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-2.216	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-2.611	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
-2.925	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
-3.262	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-3.395	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
-3.837	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-4.118	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-4.266	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
-4.863	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-5.086	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-5.203	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
-5.312	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
-5.689	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
-6.190	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-6.295	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
-6.757	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
-7.085	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-7.329	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-7.359	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-7.460	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-7.577	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
-7.611	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-8.176	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-8.688	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-8.888	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-8.923	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-9.489	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-9.935	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
-10.284	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-10.680	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
-10.696	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
-11.377	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-11.600	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-12.538	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
-14.178	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
-14.385	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
-17.253	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-17.776	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
-18.744	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-21.676	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
-22.281	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
-31.061	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-34.787	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
-36.066	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-37.851	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
-37.905	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-45.687	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-50.518	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-80.391	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous