AngraMainyu

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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16.51		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
162.482	99.9%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
94.353	99.2%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
83.823	52.6%	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
81.034	100.0%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
75.465	82.4%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
71.057	100.0%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
70.827	99.6%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
61.046	99.8%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
55.539	82.8%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
52.873	97.8%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
52.836	98.5%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
51.019	49.5%	How much Wall will, in the end, be built?	Continuous
50.677	99.4%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
49.634	99.9%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
48.746	99.8%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
48.303	100.0%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
46.976	92.6%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
45.341	100.0%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
45.162	99.6%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
42.361	98.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
39.547	100.0%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
39.268	93.3%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
38.738	100.0%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
38.730	92.5%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
38.330	99.5%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
37.429	99.9%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
36.627	99.9%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
36.618	100.0%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
36.556	99.8%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
36.430	77.8%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
36.029	89.9%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
35.835	99.9%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
35.605	99.5%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
35.207	100.0%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
35.126	97.6%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
34.462	99.1%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
33.418	99.9%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
32.399	100.0%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
32.382	99.9%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
31.565	62.3%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
30.877	100.0%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
30.540	94.9%	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
30.092	100.0%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
30.036	100.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
29.597	99.2%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
28.729	99.7%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
28.508	99.5%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
28.465	84.7%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
27.713	99.9%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
26.929	99.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
26.820	99.9%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
26.002	99.9%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
25.723	99.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
25.025	40.2%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
24.629	99.8%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
24.479	98.4%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
23.763	56.3%	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
23.353	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
23.221	99.7%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
23.109	100.0%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
22.856	100.0%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
22.586	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
22.172	99.0%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
22.156	29.9%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
22.130	99.9%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
21.697	100.0%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
21.634	99.3%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
20.451	98.9%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
20.154	99.8%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
20.070	99.9%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
20.049	99.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
19.984	100.0%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
19.927	100.0%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
19.470	100.0%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
19.307	99.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
19.164	99.8%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
18.545	91.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
18.407	36.0%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
18.240	96.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
18.186	99.9%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
17.930	100.0%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
17.874	28.5%	Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?	Binary
17.609	48.6%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
17.105	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.875	85.7%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
16.635	100.0%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
16.554	99.4%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
16.250	26.2%	Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?	Binary
16.228	27.2%	50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?	Binary
15.967	96.1%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
15.694	99.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
14.344	99.4%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
12.946	99.4%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
12.510	100.0%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
12.286	63.0%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
11.896	63.7%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
11.389	99.7%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
11.085	86.1%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
11.078	49.6%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
10.905	100.0%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
10.653	62.6%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
10.586	99.7%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
10.572	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
10.393	59.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
10.209	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
9.937	100.0%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
9.472	77.0%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
9.365	96.4%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
9.315	100.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
9.217	23.9%	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
8.951	40.5%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
8.876	41.9%	Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?	Binary
8.825	78.7%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
8.389	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
8.312	83.1%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
8.133	99.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
7.749	100.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
7.530	100.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
7.398	95.8%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
7.335	24.8%	20 more languages extinct by 2021?	Binary
6.521	99.8%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
6.444	99.4%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
5.885	100.0%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
5.489	95.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
3.822	95.9%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
3.526	100.0%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
2.658	13.7%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
2.600	99.8%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
2.016	99.9%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
1.717	85.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.666	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
1.294	99.9%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
1.265	17.5%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
1.139	2.5%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.952	12.0%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
0.607	99.8%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
0.481	3.6%	To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?	Binary
0.476	89.4%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
0.341	9.2%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.027	7.7%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
-1.013	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-1.502	97.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-3.024	74.0%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
-4.228	77.6%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-4.858	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-6.511	78.8%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-8.104	13.3%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-8.782	14.2%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-9.631	99.5%	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-10.667	95.9%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
-11.213	96.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-11.552	57.7%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-11.591	55.8%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-12.958	97.8%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-16.906	99.8%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-17.940	45.8%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-29.448	88.4%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-30.282	99.5%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-30.554	99.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
-31.055	99.9%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-32.740	99.9%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-35.052	100.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-35.627	99.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-43.105	96.3%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-46.427	100.0%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
-64.063	99.7%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-68.243	98.8%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-83.981	73.7%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-87.410	96.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-139.175	99.2%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
-200.716	88.1%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous