AngraMainyu

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.171	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.969	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
63.713	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
56.680	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
51.716	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
47.078	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
45.205	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
41.872	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
36.560	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
35.721	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
35.567	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
35.280	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
35.224	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
33.502	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
33.011	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
31.421	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
31.094	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
30.624	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
29.805	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
28.181	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
23.738	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
23.076	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
22.806	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
19.216	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
18.258	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
15.155	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
13.996	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
10.629	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
8.198	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
7.152	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
6.600	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
5.000	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
4.426	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
4.370	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
3.741	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
2.279	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-4.807	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
-7.769	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-9.102	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
-9.371	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-10.625	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
-15.596	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
-19.030	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
-29.708	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
-44.801	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-176.443	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-246.728	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary