84.683 | What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019? | Continuous |
70.759 | Will 2019 be the warmest year on record? | Binary |
35.008 | If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months? | Continuous |
33.528 | Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020? | Binary |
24.116 | Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020? | Binary |
23.133 | Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000? | Binary |
19.230 | Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020? | Binary |
18.391 | Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections? | Binary |
16.246 | Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019? | Binary |
13.911 | Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | Binary |
12.909 | When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end? | Continuous |
12.325 | Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League? | Binary |
11.740 | Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019? | Binary |
10.430 | Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020? | Binary |
9.639 | Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner? | Binary |
9.577 | Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020? | Binary |
8.238 | British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020? | Binary |
8.230 | Will Tesla go private prior to 2020? | Binary |
7.914 | Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019? | Binary |
7.361 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019? | Binary |
6.949 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019? | Binary |
6.036 | Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt? | Binary |
5.339 | Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company? | Binary |
4.875 | Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020? | Binary |
4.493 | Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election? | Binary |
4.255 | Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019? | Binary |
4.040 | By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | Binary |
3.867 | Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021? | Binary |
3.791 | How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019? | Continuous |
3.427 | Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019? | Binary |
3.374 | Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away? | Continuous |
3.025 | Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019? | Binary |
2.378 | Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020? | Binary |
2.355 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019) | Continuous |
2.022 | Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean? | Binary |
1.624 | Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021? | Binary |
-5.116 | Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member? | Binary |
-6.412 | Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones? | Binary |
-9.502 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019? | Binary |
-13.509 | What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question? | Continuous |
-13.739 | Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019? | Binary |
-14.534 | Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019? | Binary |
-15.301 | Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today? | Binary |
-19.405 | Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019? | Binary |