jzima

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

15.57	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.439	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
66.861	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
59.645	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
50.526	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
46.404	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
44.657	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
40.898	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
31.003	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
29.102	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
28.401	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
27.903	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
27.217	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
26.943	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
25.598	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
25.170	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
24.238	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
24.207	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
23.377	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
23.054	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
22.492	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
21.258	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
20.908	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
19.908	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
18.489	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
18.044	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
17.786	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
17.548	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
16.513	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
15.203	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
15.160	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
14.789	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
13.969	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
12.532	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
11.520	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
10.570	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
10.372	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
9.882	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
8.170	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
7.863	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
5.979	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
5.305	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
5.273	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
3.181	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
2.723	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
2.516	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
0.620	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
0.437	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
-0.219	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
-4.599	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-4.722	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
-7.868	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-9.226	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
-9.800	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
-13.605	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
-17.309	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
-18.563	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-27.662	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
-27.737	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous