datscilly

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8.571	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.957	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
67.571	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
64.673	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
56.219	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
54.393	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
53.313	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
50.624	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.553	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
47.059	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
42.765	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
40.886	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
37.281	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
37.270	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
36.224	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
35.830	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
31.404	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.093	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
30.805	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
29.672	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
29.288	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
28.956	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
28.044	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
25.832	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
25.813	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
25.295	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
24.888	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
24.699	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
24.544	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
24.058	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
23.579	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
23.161	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
22.809	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
21.884	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
21.726	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
21.490	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
20.854	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
20.822	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
20.622	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
20.002	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
19.487	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
19.295	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
18.775	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
18.552	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
18.276	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
17.246	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
15.611	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
15.174	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
15.163	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
15.160	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
14.299	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
14.152	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
13.426	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
13.220	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
12.812	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
11.792	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
11.724	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
11.658	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.338	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
11.235	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
11.112	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.872	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
10.586	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
10.289	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
10.197	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
9.534	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
9.483	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
8.995	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
8.853	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
8.791	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
8.557	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
8.486	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
8.164	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
8.158	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
7.473	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
7.268	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
6.785	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
6.662	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
6.647	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
6.490	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
6.199	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
6.077	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
5.611	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
5.382	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
5.137	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
5.075	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
4.994	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
4.984	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
4.528	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
3.955	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
3.470	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
3.454	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
3.366	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
3.318	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
3.271	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
3.204	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
3.073	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
2.814	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
2.554	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
2.426	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
2.321	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
2.205	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.185	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
2.177	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
1.972	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
1.671	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
1.668	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
1.455	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
1.399	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
1.287	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
1.259	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
1.149	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
1.112	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
0.962	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
0.795	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
0.607	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
0.574	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
0.398	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
0.344	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.254	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
0.127	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
0.113	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
0.008	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
0.003	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-0.026	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-0.152	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
-0.463	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
-1.772	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
-2.168	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
-2.426	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
-2.968	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-3.572	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
-4.216	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-4.350	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-4.600	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
-5.787	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
-5.826	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-6.462	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-6.691	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
-6.891	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
-6.991	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-7.130	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
-7.478	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-7.628	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-7.667	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-9.729	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-10.213	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
-10.634	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-10.924	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
-12.893	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
-14.137	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-15.219	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
-18.320	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-19.291	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
-19.428	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
-21.838	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
-34.963	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
-39.819	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
-45.830	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-63.744	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-141.089	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous