Barbarossa

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

15.79	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.487	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
77.569	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
54.083	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
48.626	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
45.890	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
45.845	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
45.195	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
44.279	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
40.153	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
39.234	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
38.458	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
38.065	Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?	Binary
37.246	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
37.065	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
35.034	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
28.595	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
27.789	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
27.245	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
25.605	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
22.849	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
21.257	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
20.276	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
19.480	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
19.182	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
17.598	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
16.575	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
15.776	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
15.628	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
15.180	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
14.206	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
12.671	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
12.433	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
12.059	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
11.143	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
10.861	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
10.572	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
10.538	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
10.498	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
8.894	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
7.678	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
6.826	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
4.887	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
2.271	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
1.462	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
0.484	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
0.163	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
-4.579	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-5.706	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-7.070	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
-9.165	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-19.781	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-21.679	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
-22.799	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-25.672	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-28.045	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
-36.496	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
-54.702	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary