Jotto

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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16.13		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
89.605	90.4%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
60.336	66.5%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
56.712	98.6%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
54.760	66.7%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
47.632	96.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
47.067	100.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
42.535	74.8%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
42.059	98.7%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
40.874	94.6%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
39.371	97.8%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
35.816	94.5%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
32.965	99.2%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
32.810	87.8%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
30.623	44.3%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
30.410	98.9%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
29.504	26.6%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
29.460	37.4%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
28.731	100.0%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
28.606	63.2%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
28.099	99.9%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
27.824	53.8%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
26.866	43.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
26.177	99.9%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
24.759	88.8%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
24.515	99.9%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
22.183	96.0%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
21.605	99.9%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
19.067	68.9%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
19.027	99.0%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
18.938	93.0%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
17.707	91.5%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
16.888	95.1%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
16.882	73.7%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
16.721	86.1%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
16.686	64.3%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
16.363	99.0%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
16.204	98.7%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.537	45.6%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
14.844	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
14.647	91.0%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
14.616	63.5%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
14.598	93.3%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
12.216	15.8%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
12.143	99.8%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
11.919	95.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
11.787	33.6%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
10.668	99.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
9.544	99.4%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
9.514	59.1%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
9.373	57.1%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
9.340	79.4%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
9.105	100.0%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
7.820	99.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
7.709	46.7%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
7.614	99.8%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
7.455	84.4%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
7.440	42.0%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
7.005	99.9%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
6.877	61.1%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
6.859	82.3%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
6.563	77.8%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
6.411	58.1%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
6.246	17.6%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
4.906	98.5%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
4.814	100.0%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
4.556	98.4%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
4.147	99.9%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
4.071	99.7%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
3.999	86.2%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
3.170	100.0%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
2.555	98.3%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
1.827	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
1.609	99.5%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
1.590	4.3%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
1.589	52.4%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
1.485	1.3%	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
1.429	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
1.211	11.3%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
1.178	97.8%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
0.983	99.9%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
0.798	4.7%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
0.722	2.1%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.191	1.0%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.165	1.4%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.051	0.7%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
0.049	0.8%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
0.039	1.5%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
0.000	0.0%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.535	99.9%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
-0.629	68.5%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-0.645	99.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-0.647	6.9%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
-0.670	75.2%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-0.711	14.0%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
-1.061	99.6%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
-1.365	100.0%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-1.563	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
-1.927	99.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-1.936	49.6%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-2.281	76.8%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-2.675	98.7%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
-5.855	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-5.948	100.0%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
-6.026	99.3%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
-7.210	100.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-8.396	99.9%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-8.560	99.9%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-11.362	100.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-13.564	99.9%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-15.246	99.6%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
-17.364	99.9%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-22.676	99.7%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary