Jotto

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.266	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
124.187	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
46.815	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
42.185	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
39.804	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
37.577	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
33.330	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
32.693	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
32.606	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
31.924	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
31.565	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
28.069	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
26.742	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
21.620	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
16.808	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
14.454	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
14.398	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
14.328	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
13.273	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
12.139	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
9.859	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
7.817	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
6.940	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
6.903	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
6.066	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
5.219	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
4.719	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
3.684	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
2.834	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
2.557	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
2.087	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
2.079	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
1.817	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
1.707	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
1.662	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
0.959	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
0.426	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
0.017	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-0.474	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-0.700	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
-1.157	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-1.436	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-1.476	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
-3.036	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-3.612	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
-4.355	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-4.752	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
-4.860	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-5.106	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
-5.151	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
-6.080	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
-8.340	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
-15.816	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-17.254	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-18.671	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-29.951	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
-30.761	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary