mattvdm

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.58	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.404	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
91.684	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
83.574	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
71.474	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
67.248	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
61.354	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
57.827	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
53.813	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
50.647	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
50.064	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
47.584	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
47.504	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
45.902	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
43.826	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
41.915	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
39.063	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
38.514	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
38.043	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
37.210	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
37.098	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
36.645	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
36.226	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
36.022	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
34.439	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
34.415	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
33.720	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
33.364	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
33.282	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
32.881	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
32.407	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
30.557	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
28.844	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
28.694	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
28.637	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
27.980	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
27.907	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
27.716	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
27.158	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
26.219	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
26.047	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
25.908	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
24.914	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
24.569	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
24.438	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
24.294	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
24.153	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
23.431	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
23.248	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
22.133	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
22.105	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
22.091	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
21.516	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
21.053	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
19.587	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
19.050	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
18.985	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
18.872	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
18.254	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
18.172	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
18.121	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
17.958	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
17.737	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
17.206	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
16.812	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
16.642	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
15.721	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
14.579	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
14.525	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
14.135	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
13.874	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
13.754	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
13.743	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
13.662	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
13.608	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
13.548	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.341	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
13.312	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
13.136	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
13.050	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
12.996	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
12.763	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
12.573	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
12.490	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
12.365	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
12.267	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
11.965	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
11.861	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
11.613	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
11.586	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
11.538	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
10.808	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
10.718	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
10.704	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
10.566	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
10.086	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
10.051	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
9.990	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.866	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.768	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
9.715	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
9.574	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
9.533	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
9.527	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
9.370	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
9.319	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
9.025	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
8.999	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
8.982	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
8.969	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
8.794	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
8.740	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
8.612	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
8.223	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
8.082	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
8.072	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
7.876	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
7.819	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
7.713	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
7.655	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
7.523	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
7.334	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
7.253	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
7.221	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
7.051	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
6.928	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
6.781	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
6.665	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
6.587	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
6.579	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
6.450	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
6.271	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
5.849	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
5.791	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
5.677	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
5.550	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
5.487	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
5.375	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
5.281	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
5.194	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
5.108	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
4.971	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
4.948	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
4.943	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
4.678	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
4.555	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
4.242	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.212	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
4.148	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
4.070	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
4.050	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
4.037	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
3.973	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
3.675	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
3.662	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
3.656	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
3.577	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
3.574	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
3.529	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
3.502	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
3.444	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
3.270	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
2.963	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.959	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
2.851	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
2.707	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
2.702	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
2.666	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
2.651	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
2.611	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
2.532	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
2.445	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
2.299	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
2.272	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
2.085	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
1.911	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
1.871	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
1.847	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
1.808	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.804	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
1.797	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.646	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
1.491	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
1.362	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
1.283	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
1.123	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
0.915	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.905	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
0.790	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
0.717	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
0.629	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
0.568	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
0.485	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.310	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
0.275	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
0.159	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.121	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-0.359	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
-1.490	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-1.754	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-1.855	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-3.107	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
-3.413	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-3.641	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
-3.826	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
-4.512	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
-5.811	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-6.047	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
-6.084	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-6.327	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-6.564	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-6.746	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-7.029	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-7.688	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-7.783	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-11.556	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-11.879	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-13.081	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-21.082	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-26.635	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-27.217	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-27.455	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-41.079	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-44.022	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous