pranomostro

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.38		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
79.359	99.9%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
71.106	99.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
65.186	99.7%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
54.934	99.7%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
51.999	99.7%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
49.992	99.4%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
48.495	100.0%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
47.132	99.8%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
45.657	98.6%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
45.410	80.6%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
44.836	84.6%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
43.750	96.5%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
42.884	99.8%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
39.204	99.9%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
38.748	99.6%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
38.167	99.8%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
37.969	99.3%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
36.475	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
35.717	99.6%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
34.806	99.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
33.699	99.8%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
33.482	97.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
33.173	99.6%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
32.033	99.4%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
31.938	99.9%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
31.045	96.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
30.196	43.5%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
30.116	99.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
29.508	97.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
29.483	99.1%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
28.236	99.4%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
28.204	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
27.354	77.9%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
26.083	99.7%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
25.728	64.3%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
25.164	99.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
23.669	99.6%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
23.369	95.3%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
22.333	99.1%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
22.030	100.0%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
22.004	50.9%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
21.198	55.6%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
21.137	43.7%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
20.389	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
20.274	98.6%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
20.172	99.9%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
18.934	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.315	93.6%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
17.953	99.5%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
17.140	92.5%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
16.997	99.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
16.916	74.0%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
16.573	99.9%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
16.204	91.7%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
15.829	18.3%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
15.718	99.4%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
15.701	99.8%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
14.877	99.6%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
14.306	92.6%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
14.149	99.2%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
14.109	100.0%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
13.839	94.0%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
13.807	99.5%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
13.264	99.9%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
13.093	100.0%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
12.869	99.9%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
12.433	20.7%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
12.145	99.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
11.904	45.7%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
11.807	99.7%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
11.743	95.2%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
11.491	85.8%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
11.486	99.9%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
10.817	100.0%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
10.532	100.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
10.503	99.8%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
10.237	99.3%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
9.951	100.0%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
9.274	17.6%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
8.822	100.0%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
8.748	36.4%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
8.612	100.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
8.488	100.0%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
8.459	99.9%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
8.011	98.5%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
7.917	96.6%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
7.630	48.3%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
7.408	62.1%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
7.403	99.3%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
7.219	58.8%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
6.794	43.6%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
6.783	100.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
6.757	99.8%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
6.538	99.5%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
5.733	100.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
5.075	99.8%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
4.871	99.6%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
4.648	100.0%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
4.079	99.9%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.001	99.8%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.801	99.8%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
3.696	95.6%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
3.562	61.6%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
3.500	20.1%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
3.058	97.4%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
2.557	71.2%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
2.162	5.0%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
1.750	98.1%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
1.373	99.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
1.153	13.3%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
0.976	99.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
0.884	99.6%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.502	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.044	64.3%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-0.430	2.9%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
-0.828	99.8%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-1.133	99.7%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
-1.159	35.7%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-1.531	99.9%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
-1.584	100.0%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-2.047	99.8%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-2.768	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-2.949	99.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-4.153	99.9%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
-4.972	99.9%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-5.322	97.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-5.913	100.0%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-6.482	53.8%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
-6.707	99.4%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-7.539	87.1%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
-7.570	99.9%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-10.028	100.0%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-10.357	85.3%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-11.384	98.7%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-12.074	83.3%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
-12.987	99.6%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-12.996	51.0%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-13.640	52.4%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-14.099	100.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
-14.269	99.8%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-14.444	99.9%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-15.095	98.7%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-17.446	99.9%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
-17.830	21.5%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-19.706	99.9%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-20.341	99.4%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
-20.528	92.4%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-22.870	99.9%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-23.075	97.4%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-23.859	99.9%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-24.038	100.0%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-31.695	99.9%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-32.731	99.8%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-35.246	99.9%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-36.847	99.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-40.256	99.8%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-45.850	99.4%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-49.239	99.8%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-53.905	99.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
-85.244	88.8%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
-100.441	93.3%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-166.705	98.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary