pranomostro

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.457	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
63.710	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
42.712	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
41.562	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
33.024	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
32.798	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
32.784	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
30.207	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
29.848	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
29.073	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
28.166	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
27.433	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
25.619	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
24.139	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
24.062	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
19.430	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
18.749	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
17.187	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
15.613	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
15.364	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
13.761	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
9.684	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
9.115	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
7.895	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
6.800	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
6.648	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
4.196	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
3.187	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
1.953	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
1.774	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
1.617	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
1.136	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
0.315	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
0.147	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
0.064	Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?	Binary
-1.883	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-2.845	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
-4.494	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
-4.774	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-6.189	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-6.221	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
-6.972	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-10.226	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-10.353	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-11.847	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
-12.331	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
-14.632	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
-14.813	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
-17.964	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
-18.886	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
-21.322	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary
-21.421	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-24.819	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
-26.473	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
-40.643	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
-43.231	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
-45.217	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
-55.153	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous