DrMatt

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.744	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.458	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
48.882	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
32.889	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
32.753	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
26.629	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
24.706	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
23.345	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
22.178	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
19.742	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
17.921	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
16.625	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
12.487	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
10.166	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
7.800	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
6.925	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
5.002	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
4.756	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
4.461	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
2.143	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
2.130	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
2.042	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
0.601	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
0.078	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
-0.004	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-0.012	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-0.013	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-0.505	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-0.726	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
-0.777	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
-1.143	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
-1.469	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-1.736	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-1.976	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-2.174	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
-4.781	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
-6.569	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
-9.074	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary