Zweihander

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2018 - 2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.538	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
115.854	Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?	Binary
105.126	Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a "Space Force" before the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
95.763	Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
70.644	Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?	Binary
49.040	When will President Trump's current (Dec 2018) government shutdown end?	Continuous
43.238	What will be the voter turnout in the European Parliament election 2019?	Continuous
38.634	Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?	Binary
36.835	Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?	Binary
27.911	Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?	Binary
26.249	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?	Binary
22.683	Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?	Binary
21.855	Will the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) bite a big company?	Binary
19.328	Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?	Binary
18.851	How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups collectively achieve for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
18.192	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?	Binary
17.938	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2019?	Continuous
13.840	Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Binary
11.797	Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?	Binary
11.772	Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?	Binary
7.198	Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?	Binary
6.972	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?	Binary
6.708	If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?	Continuous
5.914	British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?	Binary
5.742	Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019?	Binary
4.299	Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?	Binary
4.101	Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019?	Binary
3.570	Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?	Binary
3.014	Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?	Binary
2.931	Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019?	Binary
2.693	When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?	Continuous
2.228	Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?	Binary
2.033	Will the UK leave the EU by the end of June 2020?	Binary
-0.165	Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?	Binary
-0.974	What will be the price of a Bitcoin in USD on December 1, 2019?	Continuous
-1.109	Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019?	Binary
-2.202	Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?	Binary
-2.629	Evidence for anomalies in neutrino oscillations to grow or fade away?	Continuous
-3.410	Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?	Continuous
-4.057	Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?	Binary
-4.697	Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?	Binary
-4.804	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2019)	Continuous
-5.919	What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?	Continuous
-6.943	Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?	Binary
-7.693	By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?	Binary
-14.555	Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?	Binary
-15.596	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?	Binary
-16.462	Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?	Binary
-17.072	Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League?	Binary
-17.154	Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?	Binary
-19.383	Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?	Binary
-28.004	Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?	Binary
-31.916	How many seats will the S&D get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-34.805	Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?	Binary
-35.223	How many seats will the EPP get for the EU Parliament election, 2019?	Continuous
-62.112	Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?	Binary
-63.916	Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?	Binary