Nichevo

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.711		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
73.583	91.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
43.699	42.0%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
32.309	60.4%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
31.967	99.4%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
29.543	59.4%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
28.839	76.2%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
24.065	67.6%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
23.643	95.1%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
21.247	76.9%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
20.367	89.2%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
18.799	79.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
16.864	56.2%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
15.521	64.2%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.228	23.1%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
14.886	79.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
14.818	66.1%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
14.482	51.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
13.925	75.7%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
11.885	91.4%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
11.777	68.0%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
11.450	96.4%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
11.343	82.3%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
11.071	17.5%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
11.031	57.2%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
10.645	22.5%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
10.250	52.2%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
9.987	81.1%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
8.957	48.5%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
8.474	56.7%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
8.292	28.1%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
7.796	44.3%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
6.869	66.8%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
6.498	74.4%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
6.216	79.1%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
5.785	44.4%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
5.667	32.4%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
5.607	95.3%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
5.607	15.2%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
4.644	22.1%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
4.562	18.2%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
4.155	43.5%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
4.110	5.5%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
3.991	4.9%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
3.469	99.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
3.316	80.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
3.279	47.4%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
3.177	91.8%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
3.116	92.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
3.079	50.4%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
3.063	28.6%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
3.004	50.1%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
2.767	23.5%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
2.610	6.4%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
2.477	65.9%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
2.374	32.1%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
2.310	33.8%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
2.022	92.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
1.984	11.5%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
1.791	19.4%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
1.704	13.9%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
1.686	6.7%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
1.627	21.5%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
1.536	4.6%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
1.460	5.7%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
1.421	62.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
1.279	25.6%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
1.035	24.1%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
1.019	1.5%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
0.967	31.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.902	21.1%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
0.886	28.0%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
0.856	3.8%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
0.694	3.6%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.549	2.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
0.482	90.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
0.340	13.0%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
0.262	1.5%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
0.220	1.4%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.214	11.9%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
0.140	0.3%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
0.133	0.6%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.123	1.1%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.115	1.8%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.113	0.2%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.052	4.8%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
0.047	0.6%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
0.046	0.3%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
0.012	0.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
0.006	2.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
0.002	0.9%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-0.084	2.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-0.253	20.6%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-0.376	65.0%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
-0.542	3.8%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
-0.548	28.6%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-0.680	69.6%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
-0.959	29.0%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-1.061	87.8%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
-1.067	4.9%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
-2.559	19.9%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-3.435	34.4%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
-4.101	95.1%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
-4.664	57.1%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-4.736	72.2%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-6.308	87.8%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-6.386	57.5%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
-6.436	56.7%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-6.467	65.8%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-7.558	52.8%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-7.892	62.3%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
-8.184	81.1%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-8.265	81.8%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-9.993	96.2%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
-10.819	54.9%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
-11.334	94.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-11.366	94.7%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-12.854	99.9%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
-13.335	76.0%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
-14.210	98.4%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-14.675	51.7%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-16.369	25.6%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
-16.431	89.2%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
-18.238	21.3%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-19.559	99.3%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
-23.694	80.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-29.153	80.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-44.040	87.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-79.130	80.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary