katifish

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.4	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
108.459	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
47.042	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary
46.404	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
46.114	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
45.250	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
45.227	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
44.665	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
44.662	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
41.294	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
40.631	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
39.784	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
38.737	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
36.984	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
36.558	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
36.111	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
35.583	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
33.981	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
32.583	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
29.412	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
28.800	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
26.791	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
26.726	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
26.666	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
25.854	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
25.573	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
25.258	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
24.648	How many cyberattacks by Iran against US Govt. systems in Q1 2020?	Continuous
22.116	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
21.926	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.801	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
21.407	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
21.137	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
20.659	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.802	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
18.791	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
18.562	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
18.329	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
18.245	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
16.620	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
16.465	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
16.426	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
16.296	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
16.169	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
15.724	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
15.474	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
15.150	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
15.125	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
13.345	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.162	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
13.129	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
12.921	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
12.825	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
12.753	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
12.159	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
11.862	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
11.272	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
10.993	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
10.815	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
10.670	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
10.421	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
9.780	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
9.726	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
9.604	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
9.410	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
9.330	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
9.280	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.988	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
8.976	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
8.663	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
8.410	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
8.158	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
7.892	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
7.670	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
7.658	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
7.638	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
7.623	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
7.215	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
7.152	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
7.098	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
6.792	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
6.586	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
6.485	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
6.366	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
6.326	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
6.026	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
6.009	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
5.876	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
5.831	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
5.600	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
5.372	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
5.302	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
5.115	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
4.936	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
4.536	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
4.130	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
3.236	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
3.084	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
2.994	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
2.779	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
2.335	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
2.252	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
1.940	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.914	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.543	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
1.490	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
1.487	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.455	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
1.285	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
1.235	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
1.080	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
0.470	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
0.401	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
0.371	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-0.926	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-1.326	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-1.327	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
-1.654	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-2.423	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-3.376	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-3.389	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-3.447	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-3.709	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-3.847	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-4.307	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-4.427	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
-5.138	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
-6.048	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-6.833	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
-6.846	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
-7.781	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-8.571	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-9.304	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-11.120	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-11.741	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
-12.804	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-14.404	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-15.580	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-24.796	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-30.492	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-30.649	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
-46.097	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-86.355	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary