felawinkelmolen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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6.591	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
132.452	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
87.449	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
84.554	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
58.052	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
54.250	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
45.598	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
39.338	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
37.372	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
36.497	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
36.247	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
35.067	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
34.503	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
30.416	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
30.408	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
29.479	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
26.712	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
24.903	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
24.365	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
23.990	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
23.451	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
22.947	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
22.227	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
22.212	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
21.548	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
20.376	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
19.271	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
19.114	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
18.986	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.273	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
16.748	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
15.738	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
15.054	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
14.998	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
14.743	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
14.717	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
14.640	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
14.286	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
13.470	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
13.003	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
12.921	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.516	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
10.915	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
10.745	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
10.557	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
10.057	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.934	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
9.696	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
9.582	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
9.501	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
8.857	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
8.762	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
8.285	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
8.199	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
7.954	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
7.404	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
7.032	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
6.517	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
6.421	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
6.236	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
5.848	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
5.827	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
5.548	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
5.360	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
5.355	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
4.870	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
4.503	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
4.421	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
4.381	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
4.373	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
4.336	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
3.660	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
3.650	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
3.608	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
3.603	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
3.483	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
3.313	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
3.146	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
3.132	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
3.128	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
2.694	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
2.660	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
2.341	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
2.245	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
2.155	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
2.084	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
1.950	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
1.946	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
1.828	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
1.809	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
1.747	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
1.728	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
1.724	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
1.624	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
1.539	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
1.509	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
1.376	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.276	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
1.247	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
1.213	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
1.209	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
1.202	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
1.060	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
1.006	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
0.886	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
0.858	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.725	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.708	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
0.687	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.623	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
0.612	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
0.575	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.522	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
0.465	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
0.414	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.395	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
0.377	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
0.311	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
0.298	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
0.251	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
0.173	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
0.161	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
0.155	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.141	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.133	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
0.121	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
0.084	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.042	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
0.029	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
0.005	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
0.005	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-0.028	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
-0.039	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-0.098	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-0.269	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
-0.314	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
-0.339	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
-0.533	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-0.723	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-0.725	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
-0.840	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
-0.864	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-0.873	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
-1.066	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-1.320	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
-1.397	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-1.667	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
-2.126	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
-2.436	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-2.768	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
-2.887	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
-3.517	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-4.099	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
-4.169	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-4.255	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-5.279	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-5.482	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-5.919	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
-6.426	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
-6.696	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-6.982	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
-7.540	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
-7.851	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-8.140	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
-8.416	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
-8.801	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
-9.866	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
-10.825	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
-11.788	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-12.586	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-16.868	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-18.612	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
-18.784	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
-21.030	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-28.306	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-38.096	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-83.383	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous