alexrjl

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.91	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.435	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
78.312	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
65.309	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
58.357	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
57.170	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
50.579	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
47.353	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
43.852	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
43.069	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
42.869	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
39.970	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
38.383	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
38.175	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
37.103	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
35.386	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
35.089	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
34.694	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
34.306	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
34.236	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
33.615	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
32.280	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
31.745	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
31.313	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
28.600	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
28.452	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
28.246	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
26.971	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
25.851	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
25.758	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
25.681	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
24.657	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
24.572	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
22.392	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
22.129	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
21.716	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
21.163	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.136	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
20.644	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
20.612	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
20.334	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
19.845	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
19.437	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
18.933	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
18.791	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
18.789	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
18.074	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
17.882	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
17.569	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
17.548	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
17.368	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
17.276	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
17.150	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
16.563	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
16.485	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
16.126	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
16.114	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
16.077	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
16.035	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
15.887	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
15.665	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
15.622	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
15.355	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.325	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
14.119	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
14.105	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
13.843	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.470	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
13.070	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
12.977	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
12.380	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
12.291	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
12.218	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.108	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
12.037	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
11.639	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
11.542	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
11.477	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
11.451	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
10.880	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
10.546	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
10.378	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
10.369	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
10.320	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
9.901	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
9.792	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
9.657	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
9.372	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
9.240	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
8.953	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
8.883	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.172	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
8.162	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
7.912	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
7.906	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
7.803	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
7.398	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
7.269	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
7.203	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
7.177	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
7.142	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
6.962	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
6.670	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
6.523	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
6.501	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.176	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
6.033	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
5.913	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
5.852	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
5.279	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
4.875	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
4.814	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
4.550	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
4.535	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
4.524	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
4.509	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
4.244	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
4.179	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
4.099	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
3.900	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
3.678	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
3.669	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
3.613	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
3.482	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
3.460	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
3.388	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
2.935	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
2.904	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
2.901	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
2.876	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
2.642	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
2.498	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
2.263	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
1.909	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.881	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
1.777	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.719	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
1.703	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
1.559	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
1.460	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
1.458	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
1.365	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
1.292	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
1.238	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
1.180	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
1.088	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
1.017	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.897	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.851	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
0.781	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.753	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
0.687	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.644	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
0.458	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.292	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
0.232	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.086	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.024	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.004	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
-0.005	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.118	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-0.509	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-1.118	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-1.153	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-3.494	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-3.986	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-10.150	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-11.078	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-11.397	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-11.886	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-16.045	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-18.313	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-18.540	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-19.734	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
-24.945	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous