lars3loff

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.028		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
91.679	100.0%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
68.801	99.9%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
66.355	100.0%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
63.405	99.8%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
51.370	93.4%	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
50.754	78.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
43.855	94.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
32.510	69.9%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
30.686	100.0%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
28.226	99.9%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
28.150	100.0%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
23.989	51.3%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
23.201	96.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
21.168	100.0%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
20.332	68.9%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
19.498	74.1%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
18.490	92.3%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
18.408	96.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
17.611	79.9%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
17.158	55.2%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
16.947	82.3%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
16.495	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
16.162	82.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.680	100.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
13.288	63.4%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
12.398	57.1%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
10.954	9.1%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
10.666	49.3%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
10.417	79.7%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
9.471	78.4%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
9.284	31.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
8.565	95.8%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
8.194	100.0%	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
7.537	79.5%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
6.474	52.4%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
5.702	81.1%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
5.644	84.0%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
5.196	55.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
5.123	37.5%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
5.030	98.5%	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
4.673	48.7%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
4.202	65.1%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.603	93.7%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
3.573	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
3.211	66.4%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
3.115	6.3%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
3.073	74.5%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
2.095	13.8%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.080	23.9%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
1.526	99.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
1.347	45.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
1.337	5.0%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
1.293	1.8%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
1.246	5.3%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
1.110	5.0%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
0.958	5.0%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
0.933	84.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
0.815	23.9%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
0.785	4.8%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
0.647	72.4%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
0.568	9.5%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
0.554	24.4%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
0.509	1.7%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
0.501	1.1%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
0.430	25.9%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
0.321	4.5%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.317	0.5%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.267	0.8%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
0.223	88.5%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
0.155	12.2%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
0.081	33.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-0.122	58.0%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-0.359	80.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-0.495	85.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-0.807	73.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
-1.478	69.4%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-1.618	55.1%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-1.731	28.8%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-1.906	50.5%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
-2.312	100.0%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
-2.446	17.3%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-3.331	10.5%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
-3.835	25.8%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
-4.003	70.5%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-4.627	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-4.686	83.5%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-4.789	99.7%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-5.021	99.7%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
-7.208	99.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-8.665	82.9%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-11.923	99.9%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
-11.941	100.0%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
-14.000	100.0%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-14.510	87.3%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-15.400	18.5%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
-15.556	96.5%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
-19.115	33.6%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-19.744	86.1%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
-21.497	99.8%	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
-25.283	84.1%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-27.040	99.9%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-28.385	99.2%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-33.448	100.0%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-33.994	99.8%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-38.603	97.0%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-51.045	99.9%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
-56.980	99.9%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary