Linch

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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9.649	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
138.018	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
120.282	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
98.421	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
61.467	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
55.298	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
49.777	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
48.148	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
43.723	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
41.736	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
40.543	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
38.893	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
37.337	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
34.885	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
33.957	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
31.951	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
31.489	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
31.317	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
31.000	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
29.762	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
27.008	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
26.376	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
26.374	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
26.099	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
25.086	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
25.008	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
24.153	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
23.012	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
20.761	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
20.529	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
19.666	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
19.047	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
18.257	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
18.049	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
16.817	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
16.446	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
15.975	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
15.214	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
15.208	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.987	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
14.490	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
14.145	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
13.910	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.689	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
13.405	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
12.652	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
12.616	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
12.035	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
11.499	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
11.470	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
11.137	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
10.940	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
10.037	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
9.813	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
9.259	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
9.104	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
8.825	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
8.661	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
8.244	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
7.095	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
6.934	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
6.828	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
6.385	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
6.241	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
5.936	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
5.918	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
5.714	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
5.524	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
5.503	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
5.448	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
4.838	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
4.754	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
4.719	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
4.696	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
4.663	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.615	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.315	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
4.176	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
4.043	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
4.011	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
3.984	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
3.629	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
3.549	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
3.472	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
3.418	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
3.390	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
3.376	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
3.179	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
3.090	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
3.042	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
2.797	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.738	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
2.555	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
2.527	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
2.368	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
2.308	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
2.215	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
2.116	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
2.085	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
1.748	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
1.519	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
1.420	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.415	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
1.385	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
1.228	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
1.222	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
1.220	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
0.962	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
0.934	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
0.813	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
0.675	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
0.532	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
0.499	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.493	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.395	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
0.393	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
0.350	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.305	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.281	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
0.281	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.278	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
0.277	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
0.254	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.245	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.155	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.145	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
0.105	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-0.213	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
-0.290	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-0.555	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-0.600	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
-0.769	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
-1.301	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
-2.015	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-2.465	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-3.673	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
-3.836	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-4.518	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
-6.035	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
-6.769	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-8.541	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
-10.082	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-11.402	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
-14.888	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-24.366	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-31.006	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
-35.254	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-44.207	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-48.197	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-50.976	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
-56.394	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous