Glossy

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

2.85	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
53.753	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
41.673	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
33.360	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
32.576	Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?	Binary
21.865	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
18.550	By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?	Binary
17.373	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
14.796	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
12.315	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
11.858	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
11.633	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
11.444	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
8.778	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
8.528	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
8.467	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
8.141	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
7.374	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
6.161	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
5.990	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
5.805	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
4.735	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
3.720	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
2.359	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
2.326	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
1.554	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.091	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
0.997	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
0.787	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
0.778	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
-4.588	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-4.780	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-11.419	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-66.316	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
-157.700	What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?	Continuous