KnowThyself

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

10.19		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
80.781	99.6%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
74.862	98.4%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
70.647	99.5%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
51.231	92.8%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
41.024	81.3%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
39.063	94.2%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
36.755	78.7%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
34.477	74.5%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
32.097	68.9%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
32.053	72.1%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
31.600	91.3%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
27.107	92.6%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
26.937	79.6%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
25.708	70.2%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
24.861	90.5%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
24.796	52.1%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
24.384	89.9%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
24.152	77.7%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
24.096	89.2%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
23.507	95.7%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
23.276	70.9%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
21.072	55.9%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
20.673	92.2%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
20.097	61.2%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
18.679	83.5%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
18.511	96.0%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
18.146	32.3%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
17.990	95.2%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
17.336	69.8%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
17.324	93.2%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
16.945	81.4%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
15.607	98.8%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
14.633	90.8%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
14.286	67.0%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
14.019	91.7%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
13.740	64.2%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
13.430	97.3%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
13.392	32.9%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
13.220	95.1%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
12.345	23.2%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
12.133	98.2%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
12.074	26.0%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
12.020	72.0%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
11.907	80.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
11.724	61.9%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
11.504	90.8%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
11.503	75.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
11.276	71.5%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
10.909	96.5%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
10.518	22.8%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
9.738	65.5%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
9.687	99.7%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
9.652	81.9%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
9.378	94.2%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
9.256	37.0%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
9.154	41.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
8.519	31.0%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
8.468	84.2%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
8.387	76.6%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
8.268	84.1%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.678	75.4%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
7.403	99.9%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
7.013	98.7%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
6.963	99.9%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
6.866	32.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
6.726	20.0%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
6.497	44.6%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
6.125	42.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
5.660	42.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
5.498	90.8%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
4.624	89.7%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
4.589	96.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
4.400	94.7%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
4.228	79.8%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
4.020	41.0%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.799	13.0%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
3.362	13.1%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
3.362	52.8%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
2.905	12.5%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
2.777	4.6%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
2.748	41.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
2.697	11.2%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
2.472	70.0%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
2.458	87.2%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
2.445	5.3%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
2.421	78.2%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
2.261	41.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
2.170	41.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
0.993	41.0%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
0.781	93.9%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
0.596	99.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
0.545	41.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
0.164	79.6%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
0.061	6.0%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-0.130	83.9%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
-0.166	92.4%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
-1.851	98.1%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
-1.865	28.2%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-2.672	57.8%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
-3.487	92.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-3.779	19.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-4.300	60.1%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-4.481	6.8%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-5.432	85.1%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-5.547	65.2%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-5.561	97.8%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-6.820	66.1%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-7.726	43.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-8.942	64.5%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-9.933	77.1%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-12.509	100.0%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-13.006	38.5%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-13.028	34.9%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-18.803	99.2%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-19.470	75.8%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-29.188	94.6%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-34.792	96.8%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-35.262	98.1%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-36.953	95.8%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-42.709	92.5%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-103.876	76.7%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-120.787	98.4%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary