H559

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.323	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
75.716	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
61.544	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
50.405	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
41.616	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
40.463	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
38.844	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
37.971	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
37.235	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
33.449	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
32.286	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.036	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.488	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
29.390	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
29.383	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
29.263	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
28.929	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
27.607	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
26.975	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
25.977	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
25.542	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
24.399	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
23.609	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
22.093	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
21.163	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
19.216	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
19.187	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
19.171	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
18.457	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
18.247	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
18.092	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
17.834	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
17.246	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
16.903	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
16.737	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.662	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
15.938	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
15.625	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
15.069	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
14.735	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
14.591	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
14.087	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
13.696	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
13.464	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
12.577	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
12.485	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
12.016	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
11.217	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
11.180	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
11.087	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
10.910	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.452	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
10.117	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
9.524	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
9.452	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
9.275	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
8.594	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
8.551	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
8.297	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
8.205	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
8.180	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
8.027	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
7.723	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
7.340	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
6.902	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
6.854	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.666	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
6.603	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
6.585	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.525	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
6.454	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
6.250	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
6.054	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
5.978	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
5.835	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
5.404	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
5.385	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
4.913	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
4.857	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.472	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
4.256	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
4.237	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
4.141	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
3.613	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
3.346	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
3.275	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
3.090	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
3.032	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
2.637	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
2.421	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
2.408	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
2.262	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
2.172	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
2.067	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
1.933	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
1.727	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
1.604	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
1.502	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
1.402	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
1.255	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
1.094	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
0.526	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
0.499	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
0.293	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
0.278	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
0.198	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
0.112	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
0.074	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
0.019	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
0.006	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
0.000	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
-0.053	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
-0.251	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-2.545	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
-2.669	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
-3.078	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
-3.549	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
-3.723	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
-3.857	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-3.861	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-4.036	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-4.319	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-4.716	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
-4.776	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
-4.797	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
-4.831	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
-5.558	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
-5.892	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
-6.108	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
-8.675	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
-9.797	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
-13.875	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
-16.906	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
-18.173	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-18.619	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
-19.853	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-28.404	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-32.440	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-41.312	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-52.155	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary