will_aldred

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.041	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
63.481	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
54.633	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
53.880	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
53.835	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
44.501	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
42.853	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
41.051	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
35.875	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
33.613	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
32.756	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.453	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
29.837	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
29.791	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
29.061	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
28.534	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
28.300	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
25.808	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
24.188	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
24.015	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
23.826	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
22.556	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
22.134	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
21.806	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.358	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.615	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
18.692	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
18.319	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
18.062	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
17.609	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
17.595	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
17.133	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
16.962	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
16.474	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.449	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
15.048	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
14.110	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
14.047	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
13.863	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
13.840	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
12.462	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
10.857	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
10.821	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
10.736	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
10.734	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
10.684	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
10.661	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
10.244	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
10.204	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
10.204	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
9.675	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
9.615	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
9.078	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.034	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
8.992	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
8.985	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.921	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
8.841	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
8.732	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
8.710	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
8.606	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
8.134	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
7.756	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
7.600	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
7.538	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
7.194	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
6.839	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
6.680	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
6.485	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
6.384	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
6.261	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
6.140	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
6.069	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
5.391	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
5.107	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
5.084	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
4.787	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
4.543	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
4.363	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
4.023	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
3.938	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
3.937	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
3.921	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
3.783	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
3.749	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
3.716	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
3.700	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
3.692	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
3.599	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
3.517	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
3.398	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
3.115	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
3.108	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
2.846	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
2.425	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
2.348	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
2.341	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
2.184	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
2.151	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
1.798	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
1.757	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
1.734	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
1.644	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
1.563	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
1.331	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
1.082	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
1.068	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
1.008	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
0.996	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.741	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
0.727	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
0.651	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
0.644	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
0.618	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
0.520	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
0.450	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
0.441	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
0.424	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
0.245	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
0.223	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
0.151	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-0.297	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
-0.365	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
-0.513	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-0.773	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.069	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-1.072	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-1.306	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-1.523	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
-1.729	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
-2.102	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-2.280	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-2.575	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
-2.929	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
-3.689	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-3.734	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
-3.783	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-4.023	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
-4.153	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-4.287	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
-4.398	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
-5.046	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
-5.181	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
-5.214	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
-5.394	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
-5.616	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
-6.130	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-6.381	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-6.474	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
-6.543	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-6.857	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-7.172	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
-7.420	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-7.987	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-8.432	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
-8.691	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
-9.255	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-12.649	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
-13.571	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
-14.540	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
-14.655	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
-15.724	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
-17.151	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
-20.958	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
-23.370	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-24.661	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
-28.293	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
-30.894	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-33.663	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-44.988	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-48.393	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-51.312	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-54.119	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous