🤖 histerio

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.61		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
124.332	79.3%	Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
99.254	92.3%	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.480	83.6%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.324	94.6%	Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?	Binary
72.503	85.4%	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.612	96.8%	Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?	Binary
65.209	90.3%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.740	96.1%	Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.202	94.3%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.561	95.2%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?	Binary
60.276	91.4%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
57.991	96.8%	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
57.804	81.6%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
56.039	94.8%	Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.583	93.5%	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?	Binary
53.743	96.5%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 40 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
52.267	96.8%	Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.716	96.8%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.320	84.2%	Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.179	94.1%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
46.857	82.8%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.654	95.4%	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.435	84.1%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.147	96.0%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
44.852	81.7%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
44.578	96.9%	Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.488	94.2%	Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?	Binary
44.194	96.0%	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.769	83.6%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
43.707	81.2%	Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
43.475	95.1%	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
43.469	83.0%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
43.423	93.6%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index come from the Energy industry on September 16, 2024?	Binary
42.702	96.6%	Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?	Binary
42.532	83.6%	Will there be a debate between the Republican vice presidential nominee and the Democratic vice presidential nominee before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.025	94.5%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
40.190	95.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?	Binary
39.625	82.1%	Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?	Binary
39.571	96.6%	On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?	Binary
39.415	94.1%	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
38.525	82.4%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
38.483	84.5%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.647	97.6%	Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.263	93.4%	Will "Rockstar" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
36.195	81.0%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?	Binary
35.942	92.8%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?	Binary
35.853	83.3%	Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
34.765	95.6%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
34.514	83.0%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
34.441	93.9%	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?	Binary
33.656	84.4%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?	Binary
33.215	78.2%	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
33.096	83.3%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
32.920	93.0%	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
32.382	83.7%	Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
31.840	84.5%	Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
31.757	82.5%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
31.728	80.9%	On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?	Binary
31.687	81.3%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?	Binary
30.710	81.4%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
30.523	92.8%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
30.182	94.9%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
29.987	55.7%	Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
29.929	82.2%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.848	84.5%	Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
29.377	91.7%	Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
29.000	83.5%	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.892	84.5%	Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?	Binary
28.785	79.7%	Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?	Binary
28.685	92.2%	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?	Binary
28.530	96.1%	Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
28.065	98.3%	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
28.027	83.8%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.794	96.8%	Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?	Binary
27.419	57.5%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.274	84.2%	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
26.948	91.0%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
26.941	79.1%	Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
26.562	84.6%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
26.395	93.0%	Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before October 1, 2024?	Binary
26.145	96.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?	Binary
26.055	90.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
25.826	78.0%	Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
25.773	83.4%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?	Binary
25.504	96.5%	Will the CDC report 21 to 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.503	58.7%	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.381	83.5%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.219	94.0%	Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?	Binary
25.134	83.4%	Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.958	83.6%	Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
24.891	96.9%	Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
24.842	97.3%	Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?	Binary
24.350	93.6%	Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
24.295	97.5%	Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 50 on September 18, 2024?	Binary
23.424	95.4%	Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?	Binary
22.504	71.8%	Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?	Binary
22.160	84.6%	Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
21.276	74.2%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?	Binary
21.152	80.2%	Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
21.069	96.3%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?	Binary
20.982	96.8%	Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
20.922	32.6%	Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
20.747	94.7%	Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.687	99.6%	Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.479	82.8%	Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index ("Kp") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?	Binary
20.088	81.8%	Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.991	95.6%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.850	91.1%	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.657	81.0%	Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
19.123	92.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
18.958	96.7%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?	Binary
18.423	82.0%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.880	82.6%	Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
17.764	33.2%	Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
17.753	56.9%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
17.614	95.9%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
17.567	91.1%	Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
17.508	96.1%	Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.270	93.5%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
17.074	80.5%	Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.940	76.2%	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
16.757	84.4%	Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
16.532	98.0%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?	Binary
16.521	70.3%	Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?	Binary
16.099	79.1%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
15.650	83.6%	Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
15.616	77.2%	Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?	Binary
15.585	98.5%	On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
15.484	96.3%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
15.397	83.9%	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
15.279	94.0%	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?	Binary
14.820	81.2%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?	Binary
14.537	95.4%	Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.535	88.9%	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
14.454	94.9%	Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
14.236	81.8%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?	Binary
14.199	95.6%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.952	96.9%	Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?	Binary
13.798	84.5%	Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.738	84.0%	Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
13.593	90.4%	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.567	83.3%	Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
13.547	82.6%	Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.538	93.5%	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
13.424	83.8%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?	Binary
13.393	95.9%	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.226	94.4%	Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?	Binary
13.200	71.8%	Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.058	94.3%	Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
13.043	84.1%	Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.464	81.9%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.423	84.0%	Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
11.997	84.5%	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.624	82.8%	Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
11.613	76.2%	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.472	82.2%	Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?	Binary
11.212	95.3%	Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.119	82.9%	Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?	Binary
10.975	89.9%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Moderate" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.840	94.8%	Will "Feelslikeimfallinginlove" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
10.761	82.7%	Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
10.747	96.1%	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
10.576	84.6%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
10.510	98.6%	Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
10.396	83.4%	Will Greystone Logistics, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.030	84.6%	Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.966	94.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?	Binary
9.709	96.7%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.570	76.3%	Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
9.193	96.7%	Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.990	95.0%	Will the CDC report 12 to 20 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.980	24.7%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?	Binary
8.978	83.1%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?	Binary
8.519	81.3%	Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.484	89.7%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?	Binary
7.955	95.3%	Will "Dilemma" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?	Binary
7.874	95.6%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
7.584	96.8%	Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?	Binary
7.572	83.0%	Will "Woman's World" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
7.071	93.1%	Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.943	84.5%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?	Binary
6.624	96.8%	Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?	Binary
6.591	98.0%	Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
6.105	82.6%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
5.971	94.5%	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.948	95.7%	Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
5.661	88.0%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "High" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.438	82.0%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.369	84.2%	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
5.258	98.4%	Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Binary
5.226	97.6%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.149	58.1%	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
5.136	94.7%	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?	Binary
4.873	34.4%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
4.105	55.1%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
3.657	83.0%	Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.632	96.8%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
3.387	82.9%	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?	Binary
3.060	22.4%	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
2.759	84.2%	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?	Binary
2.668	96.8%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.380	96.4%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?	Binary
2.023	84.5%	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?	Binary
1.785	94.7%	Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?	Binary
1.569	92.6%	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
0.540	82.3%	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.204	81.7%	Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Binary
-0.567	95.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?	Binary
-1.343	84.1%	Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-2.429	22.3%	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-3.216	23.8%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be less than 300 herds?	Binary
-4.105	96.8%	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
-4.792	84.1%	Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-4.805	93.3%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?	Binary
-4.885	53.8%	Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-5.832	97.9%	Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?	Binary
-6.174	96.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Meta, Facebook or Instagram?	Binary
-6.418	82.4%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.475	96.0%	Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?	Binary
-7.549	98.7%	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?	Binary
-8.166	84.1%	Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.464	75.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
-8.530	93.1%	Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-8.914	96.6%	Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.081	95.3%	Will Kamala Harris say "I'm speaking" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?	Binary
-9.678	22.7%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?	Binary
-10.025	84.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-10.425	81.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?	Binary
-11.044	92.5%	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
-11.503	22.5%	Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?	Binary
-12.607	98.6%	Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's "Together" coalition?	Binary
-13.442	33.9%	Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-15.551	84.3%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-16.068	92.8%	Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?	Binary
-16.420	56.9%	Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?	Binary
-16.871	98.2%	Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?	Binary
-17.429	99.2%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.575	84.1%	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-18.800	91.3%	Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.213	90.9%	Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.707	97.2%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.638	94.7%	Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-23.308	94.7%	Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-25.316	83.3%	Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?	Binary
-26.696	84.0%	Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?	Binary
-27.199	83.9%	Will Tesla increase its production in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024?	Binary
-27.765	83.7%	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.623	54.4%	Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Binary
-28.654	80.4%	Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?	Binary
-29.986	84.5%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-30.251	84.1%	Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-30.290	84.3%	Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Binary
-32.354	82.5%	Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?	Binary
-33.000	95.4%	Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-33.307	90.6%	Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-33.515	80.3%	On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Binary
-33.652	84.5%	Will Donald Trump's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?	Binary
-33.741	96.8%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-35.010	83.2%	Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-35.443	97.4%	Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?	Binary
-35.930	96.2%	Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?	Binary
-36.048	73.1%	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-36.991	93.5%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?	Binary
-37.845	80.7%	Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?	Binary
-39.176	99.6%	Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?	Binary
-40.608	94.0%	Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-44.053	82.9%	Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?	Binary
-44.257	92.3%	Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.496	90.7%	Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?	Binary
-49.152	96.8%	Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-49.186	84.3%	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-55.066	82.0%	Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-66.863	91.9%	Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Binary
-69.821	92.2%	Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?	Binary
-70.514	96.2%	Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?	Binary
-81.573	95.3%	Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed "Very Low" before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-81.747	94.5%	Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Binary
-93.499	96.2%	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-114.489	82.6%	Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Binary
-123.580	99.6%	Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?	Binary