### **\$5,000** Prize Pool

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) reshaped America’s industrial policy with hundreds of billions in clean energy tax credits. In 2025, with Republicans controlling the White House and Congress, the future of these credits is uncertain—and the reconciliation process is the battleground.

[Fiscal Showdown 2025](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/fiscal) invites you to predict the survival — or repeal — of major IRA incentives:
• Clean energy tax credits (45Y, 48E, 45X, 45Q)
• EV and hydrogen subsidies (30D, 45V)
• Domestic content mandates
• Medicaid cuts, deficit impact, and procedural decisions (e.g. Parliamentarian rulings)

Will key tax credits be eliminated or narrowed? Will domestic content bonuses become requirements? Will the reconciliation bill reduce Medicaid or raise the deficit? Can Senate Republicans pass their agenda using creative procedural tactics?

### Forecast on questions like: 

* [When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36438/month-in-2025-where-trump-signs-a-reconciliation-bill-into-law/)
* [What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's \$7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36480/fate-of-the-7500-ev-credit-in-2025/)
* [In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36487/will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-ptc-in-2025/)

Your predictions help surface where the biggest uncertainties lie, clarify what outcomes are considered plausible, and provide early signals to policymakers, analysts, and the public as the legislative process unfolds.

### Tournament Timeline

We will resolve all but one question by the end of 2025. The remaining question, regarding [minimum staffing standards for long-term care facilities](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36461/will-the-nursing-home-minimum-staffing-final-rule-be-in-effect/), will resolve in 2027 and will be excluded from scoring and prize calculations. This will allow us to conclude the tournament and award prizes in early 2026.

### [**Start forecasting**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/fiscal)