Ukraine Conflict Update for Sunday, 2022-03-13
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This post provides a snapshot of the last 24 hours of significant events, forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions related to the crisis in Ukraine. We want to produce such updates regularly, and so this piece is optimized most for speed. Please tag @christian to report any errors. ## Contents of this update * The latest * Useful links * Upcoming questions * New questions * Forecast updates and signals # The latest Tomorrow, Russia and Ukraine will hold the next round of talks via videoconference. China has responded to reporting that Moscow asked Beijing for miitar equipment. "I've never heard of that," indicated a spokesperson for China's embassy in Washington. President Biden has warned that China will face consequences were it to assist Russia. # Useful links Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at CNA, has a helpful thread on what has been learned about Russian military might. [link](https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1503037124639141896) # Upcoming questions [*What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/) [How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/) [Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/) [How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/) [If there is a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, when will it take effect?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10250/date-of-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2022/) [Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/) [Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/) [Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10251/major-disruption-to-ukrainian-internet-access/) # New questions [If Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will it happen for the first time?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10245/ru-au-peace-talks-with-presidents/) # Forecast updates and signals The following are forecasts with significant Community Prediction shifts in the last 24 hours, as well as various discussions reflecting and informing forecasters' perspectives.    --- What would you find most useful in regular Ukraine Conflict updates? Share your thoughts and feedback below.