Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14
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*Note: Ukraine Conflict updates will be moving to a twice-weekly schedule. More details to follow.* This post provides a snapshot of the last 24 hours of significant events, forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions related to the crisis in Ukraine. We want to produce such updates regularly, and so this piece is optimized most for speed. Please tag @christian to report any errors. ## Contents of this update * The latest * Public figures * Forecast updates and signals + User @PhilosophyBear linked to a helpful [blog post where they analyze Russian equipment losses](https://philosophybear.substack.com/p/update-on-russian-equipment-losses?s=w). * New questions + [If Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will it happen for the first time?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/) + [Will Kyiv fall before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10269/kyiv-fall-before-2023/) + [If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it happen?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10265/ukraine-without-internet-when/) + [Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10251/major-disruption-to-ukrainian-internet-access/) * [Upcoming questions](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/?status=upcoming) + [*Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10267/nato-article-5-invocation-before-2023/) + [*Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/) + [*Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/) + [*Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/) + [*How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/) + [*If there is a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, when will it take effect?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10250/date-of-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2022/) + [*Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/) + [*How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/) + [*What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/) # The latest * Most Russian advances on Ukrainian cities have stalled, according to a senior [US Defense Department source](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2954548/russian-invasion-stalled-in-ukraines-north-progress-in-south/). * The US has warned China not to support Russia, indicating that "[any such country that would seek to attempt to bail Russia out of this economic, financial morass will be met with consequences](https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086427498/russia-ukraine-war-what-happened-today-march-14)." * The fourth round of Russian-Ukrainian talks have [wrapped](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html) and will continue Tuesday. # Public figures Maxim Lott, creator of ElectionBettingOdds.com made a number of Ukraine conflict forecasts. Find them below, on his just added Metaculus [Public Figure page](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/maxim-lott/), or on his [Substack](https://maximumtruth.substack.com/p/understanding-russia?s=r). > **Bloody slog, Russian “victory” (15%)**— Russia continues fighting for months, kills Ukraine’s President or forces him into exile, establishes either direct or puppet control over all of Ukraine, or, at least Kiev plus all of Ukraine that borders Russia. Insurrectionists are put down using brutality and martial law. > **Bloody slog, “draw” (10%)** — Russia’s military tries for months, but proves simply unable to take and control Kiev. Russia instead contents itself with taking Ukraine’s south and east (roughly, the blue areas in the election map above) and calls it a win. In this case, western Ukraine likely later joins NATO. > **Peace treaty, Russian “victory” (20%) —**Ukraine’s government gets to survive in some remaining part of the country (e.g., Lviv, maybe Kiev), but Ukraine and NATO agree to never allow Ukraine to join NATO. Russia also gets, at least, all of Donetsk and Luhansk (not just the parts they had pre-war). > **Peace treaty, “draw” (40%) —**Ukraine’s government and NATO agree to never allow Ukraine to join NATO, but Russia returns essentially all land captured in this war; it does not get to take the entire Donetsk or Luhansk territories, or any other additional Ukrainian region. *Note: According Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Russia has*[*already made a peace offer*](https://www.mediaite.com/news/zelensky-tells-abc-he-has-questions-about-putins-intel-hes-in-this-bubble-and-you-dont-know-if-hes-getting-realistic-info/)*along these lines. Ukraine is declining it, for now. Of course, the offer will get better or worse depending on how the war turns.* > **Russian internal collapse (15%)** — Putin tries to keep up a bloody flight, but the impact on Russia’s population or military become intolerable, and Putin is removed. Prediction markets basically [put this at 22%](https://www.electionbettingodds.com/Putin2022.html) George Mason University economist [Robin Hanson now has a Public Figure page, here](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/robin-hanson/). We'll track this prediction and others there: # Forecast updates and signals User @PhilosophyBear linked to a helpful [blog post where they analyze Russian equipment losses](https://philosophybear.substack.com/p/update-on-russian-equipment-losses?s=w). The following are forecasts with significant Community Prediction shifts in the last 24 hours, as well as various discussions reflecting and informing forecasters' perspectives. Over the last day, the community predicted likelihood of a cease-fire or peace agreement has substantially increased, from 67% to 75%.      # New questions # [Upcoming questions](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/?status=upcoming) [*Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10267/nato-article-5-invocation-before-2023/) [*Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/) [*Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia between March 14, 2022 and December 31, 2023?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/) [*Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/) [*How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/) [*If there is a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, when will it take effect?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10250/date-of-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2022/) [*Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10249/georgia-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia/) [*How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/) [*What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10247/nato-defense-spending-in-2022/) --- What would you find most useful in regular Ukraine Conflict updates? 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