*Ukraine Conflict updates are released twice a week and cover recent significant events, substantial forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions. Please comment with what content you would find most valuable and tag @christian with any corrections.* 

# Forecast updates

The following are shifts in Community Predictions since Monday, the 14th:

[Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10050/bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia--ukraine/) **70% → 76%**

[Will Volodymyr Zelensky remain President of Ukraine by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9743/zelensky-stays-in-power/) **37% → 57%**

[Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9942/brent-oil-to-breach-140-before-may/) **48% → 25%**

[Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10056/russia-controls-kharkiv-on-june-1-2022/) **70% → 55%**

[Will Kyiv fall before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10269/kyiv-fall-before-2023/) **55% → 28%**

[Will half of threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian control by June?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9941/russia-takeover-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june/) **70% → 59%**

# Francis Fukuyama forecasts

[Francis Fukuyama](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/francis-fuykuyama/) is an American political scientist and writer who is most famous for his book The End of History and the Last Man. He now has a [Public Figure page](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/francis-fuykuyama/) featuring the following predictions, [made on March 10th](https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/): 

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screen_Shot_2022-03-18_at_10.16.24_PM.jpeg)

[**Putin will not survive the defeat of his army**](https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/10348/a-public-prediction-by-francis-fukuyama/). He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

[**There is no diplomatic solution to the war**](https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/10347/a-public-prediction-by-francis-fukuyama/) **possible prior to [a collapse of Russia's position]**. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

[**Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine**](https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/10346/a-public-prediction-by-francis-fukuyama/). Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion.

# Questions opened this week

What would you find most useful in regular Ukraine Conflict updates? Share your thoughts and feedback below.