*Ukraine Conflict updates are released twice a week and cover recent significant events, substantial forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions. Please comment with what content you would find most valuable and tag @christian with any corrections.*

# Nuclear risk forecasts

With concerns rising over the possibility of nuclear escalation with Russia, Metaculus recruited a team of Pro Forecasters to focus on eight key nuclear risk questions. Read the full report summarizing their aggregate forecasts and rationales [here](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10439/russia-ukraine-conflict-forecasting-nuclear-risk-in-2022/). 

# Public predictions

Anders Åslund is an economist and author focusing on Russia, Ukraine & Eastern Europe. Click [here for his Public Figure prediction page](https://www.metaculus.com/public-figure/anders-aslund/). 

# Forecast updates and rationales

The following Community Predictions have seen significant shifts since Monday, the 21st:

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/111.jpeg)![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/112.jpeg)![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/113.jpeg)

## 33% → 23%

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/115.jpeg)

## **19% → 6%**

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/118.jpeg)

## **55% → 15%**

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/116.jpeg)![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/117.jpeg)

## **25% → 13%**

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/119.jpeg)

## **60% → 75%**

# New questions



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