*Ukraine Conflict updates are released regularly and cover recent significant events, substantial forecast updates, public predictions, and newly added questions. Please comment with what content you would find most valuable and tag @christian with any corrections.*

# The latest

* After weeks of bombardment, there are still reports of heavy fighting in Mariupol. Mariupol is indicated to be a key objective of the invasion as taking it would secure a land corridor from Russia to the occupied territory of Crimea, according to the [UK's Ministry of Defense](https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-3-22/h_3ed426bb7eefff96bce5bfa6c427cd48).

* The US plans to announce new sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, the 6th, which would ban new investment in Russia, sanction Russian government officials and their families, and tighten sanctions on financial institutions and state-owned enterprises.

  


* Images of hundreds of civilian corpses in Bucha and other Ukrainian towns are being pointed to as evidence of Russian war crimes.

# How many casualties will there be in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

The question of how many people will lose their lives in this conflict is tragic, pressing, and especially challenging to forecast. David Noel ([@wobblybobby](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/112733/)) has proposed a model for forecasting Russian and Ukrainian casualties as part of his [new essay and series of forecasts in the Metaculus Journal](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10496/how-many-casualties-will-there-be-in-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/). 

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Mariupol_graph.jpeg)

# Forecast updates and rationales

The following Community Predictions have seen significant shifts since Monday the 28th:

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screen_Shot_2022-04-05_at_2.55.40_PM.jpeg)

  


# 25% → 90%

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/1111.jpeg)![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/1112.jpeg)

# 75% → 55%

  


# May 4 → May 24

  


# 51% → 60%

![](https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/11113.jpeg)

# 28% → 15%

  


# July 26 → Nov 3

  


# 73% → 99%Newly opened questions



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