January 26, 2023 Virtual Metaculus Meetup
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**Update:** The January 2023 Virtual Metaculus Meetup will be held at 12:30 PM US central time (6:30 PM UTC) on Thursday January 26. We'll use Jitsi for the meetup, here's a link to join: https://meet.jit.si/moderated/d77eea06974e19c2565fd744758c9f49fefc0894241f1e9a96829befefaf4226 [Here's a link to an ics calendar invite](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18eorD9RyCq1uc7b57-z5TTkxd0-IPuMB/view?usp=share_link) you can download if you wish to add it to your calendar. See you there! --- We’re holding another virtual meetup (last held in [December of 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14222/december-28-2022-virtual-metaculus-meetup/)). This is an opportunity to chat with your fellow Metaculites and a few Metaculus Admins about anything on your mind related to forecasting, interesting questions on the site, rationales for your forecasts, questions for Admins, questions you want to see on the site, or anything else. Fill out this when2meet to indicate your availability: https://www.when2meet.com/?18292623-dGTVn We’ll select a time and announce it prior to the meetup. If there are no objections the meetup will be held on [Jitsi](https://meet.jit.si/), which is free to use, and we’ll post a link to the meeting when the time is announced. We’ve also launched a forecasting question asking for the peak number of attendees for the January forecasting meetup, [see if you can predict the attendance here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12559/metaculus-meetup-peak-attendees/). We hope to see you there! # In Case You Missed It Our CEO, Gaia Dempsey, looked back on 2022 in our [Metaculus Year in Review](https://metaculus.medium.com/metaculus-year-in-review-2022-c92ff9cd87a0) blog post. Check it out for an overview of all the new and exciting developments that happened last year. After last month’s Million Predictions Hackathon, we had the difficult task of selecting only nine winners from the 30 worthy submissions received. First place awards went to Peter Wildeford in the Aggregation and Accuracy category, for his *Make Number Go Up* method of outperforming the current Metaculus Prediction; Vasily Artyukhov in the Evaluating Individual Forecasters category for his work on *Early Talent Spotting and Better Leaderboards*; and in the Open Inquiry category to Ellie Litwack for *Can Money Buy Accuracy?*, a deep dive into the effects of monetary incentives on Metaculus tournaments. Thank you to all who submitted projects and congratulations to [the full set of nine winning teams.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14283/the-million-prediction-hackathon-winners/) Are you new to Metaculus? Do you want to gain more experience as a forecaster? Then check out our [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/)! This tournament will run until April 1, 2023, with two new questions launched each week. The questions all resolve within a week to give you prompt feedback on how accurate you were. And congratulations to the [winners](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14406/beginner-tournament-news/) of the 2022Q4 Beginner Tournament! In December we launched the [ACX 2023 Prediction Contest](https://www.metaculus.com/project/2023-contest/), a contest where you can predict on a number of questions posed by [Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/) blogger Scott Alexander. Scott will be scoring the most accurate predictions from individuals and forecasting platforms, check out the [tournament page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/2023-contest/) for more details. We also launched a new [LLM Indicators](https://www.metaculus.com/project/2049/) to collect some questions about near-term developments in Large Language Models (LLMs). See if you can predict what comes next for LLMs like ChatGPT and GPT-4.