September 30, 2023 Update

Virginia public health officials have concluded their consultation of forecast data. Thank you for sharing your predictions and supporting their decision making efforts! Though data will no longer be shared with VDH, the tournament continues.

Round 3 Begins With 12 New Forecast Questions

Round 3 of Keep Virginia Safe II has started! Forecast on 12 new questions, support the public health officials working to keep Virginians safe, and compete for $20,000 in prizes. Start predicting.

This round introduces questions on natural disasters, rising temperatures, and air quality, in addition to questions on vaccine uptake and hospitalizations.

12 New Questions Provide Forecasting Support to Health Officials

Here are some to get you started:

• How many days will see Air Quality Index values over 150? (Where the higher the value the more hazardous the air quality.)

• What percentage of adults will be vaccinated against the flu?

• When will we see the highest percentage of medical visits for flu-like illnesses?

• Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for a tropical cyclone?

We're grateful to the Metaculus community for sharing your insights for this important initiative.

Read on to learn about the impact your forecasts have already made as part of Keep Virginia Safe II.

How Metaculus Forecasts Are Making a Difference [March 30th, 2023]

Here are some of ways Metaculus forecasts are supporting Virginia's public health response:

COVID-19 Incidence

Forecasts indicated a continued decline in COVID-19 hospital admissions, with XBB.1.5 variant saturation expected to persist. Informing VDH's expectation of a delayed surge helps the department plan accordingly.

COVID-19 Policies

Forecasts indicated that the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for all therapeutics is unlikely to be withdrawn before the end of 2023. Further, the patient-level data requirement may end before the Public Health Emergency (PHE) on May 11th. Both of these insights have been valuable for policy planning and resource allocation.

Vaccine Privatization

Vaccine privatization may occur in late summer 2023—information that helps staff prepare for potential changes in vaccine distribution.

Other Diseases & Public Health Impact

Forecasts suggested a low probability of a second flu peak this season, reducing concerns about H5N1 in birds and monkeypox for 2023. Public health officials can allocate those resources more effectively.

Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament Announcement [2023-1-30]

Metaculus is thrilled to announce the launch of the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament! This is Metaculus’s second tournament contributing forecasts to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.

This Tournament will directly address key scientific and policy questions by aggregating knowledge from many experts and forecasters. Forecasts will be used to help determine which scenarios are more likely to play out and will serve as an additional input for computational modeling and policy decisions in the state of Virginia. KVS II will ask questions on vaccination rates, booster uptake, operational logistics, and many other key indicators important to decision-makers, such as:

• When will COVID-19 vaccinations be privatized?
• Will there be a bimodal distribution for flu activity?
• How many events will Virginia's Medical Reserve Corps deploy to in 2023?
• How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?

We are excited to resume this unique collaboration between Metaculus’s forecasting community and computational epidemiological forecasters. We are grateful to our partners at the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute, the Virginia Department of Health, and to you, the Metaculus community, for your participation.

$20,000 in prizes awarded for accurate predictions. Get started.