Introducing Conditional Forecast Copying
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.gif) Now it’s easier to make conditional forecasts *and* easier to make them coherent across conditions. Just click the new Copy button on conditional questions to duplicate your forecast from the Child Question or from the other branch of the Yes/No question pair. ### When Would You Copy Forecasts? Imagine the following forecasting scenario: You've already carefully entered a forecast on a continuous question like: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17113/ Then you see a new conditional pair that uses the previous AI question as its 'Child Question.' (For a review of Conditional Pairs and terms like 'Child Question' click [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#conditionals).) https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17540/ Imagine you believe an AI-driven attack on a US election is extremely unlikely. Your previous forecast on the Child Question — when concern will go mainstream — in effect *already* assumes this. That is, it's nearly identical to what you would want to forecast in the 'IF NO' branch of the conditional pair. ### Streamlined Conditional Forecasting Before the introduction of forecast copying, entering a forecast *conditional on no attack* would have required entering your probability distribution again. In addition to the extra effort, there was also the potential for introducing unintended differences into your new forecast. Now you can simply copy the Child Question forecast into the 'IF NO' branch and make any necessary adjustments. And with an 'IF NO' forecast in place, it's easier to make your 'IF YES' forecast. Just click on the Yes branch and click 'Copy from if No' to duplicate your probability distribution. Believe that an election attack would accelerate mainstream concerns by two years? You can copy your 'IF NO' forecast and adjust it as needed.  Once you've made a forecast on the Child Question of a conditional pair, you'll have the option of copying it to either branch of the conditional pair. After copying, click 'Save Change'. After forecasting either conditional branch, you can copy that forecast to the other branch. <br /> #### Here are some new conditional questions to get you started: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17537/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17534/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17540/ **Have questions or feedback on copying forecasts? Let us know in the comments!**