We’re pleased to announce the winners of the commenting prize for the [Climate Tipping Points Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/climate/):

1. [SpottedBear](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/131523/) – $1,203
2. [podar_hd](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/137079/) – $896
3. [vitamind](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/123015/) – $401

Great comments are public goods which provide us all with information that can challenge or kickstart our thinking. They spur conversation and dialogue and help our decision-making partners contextualize the forecast data we provide.

The Climate Tipping Points Tournament aims to find positive tipping points in zero-emission vehicle adoption, forecasting which factors and policies might accelerate adoption. Detailed comments improve our interpretation of the predictions and help us better understand how positive tipping points could be achieved.

The winning commentary included:

* SpottedBear’s [analysis of the probability of California’s Clean Air Act waiver exception being repealed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15492/californias-emissions-waiver-repealed-2027/#comment-125559) which conditioned on the election chances of the various presidential candidates;
* SpottedBear [identifying a discrepancy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15831/charging-stations-conditional-on-cfi-payment/#comment-125586) between forecasts for the number of charging stations conditional on disbursement of grants for charging infrastructure and forecasts on the unconditional version of the question;
* podar_hd [decomposing whether California will receive a waiver for Advanced Clean Cars II](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15815/california-advanced-clean-cars-ii-waiver/#comment-126354) and examining factors such as legal challenges, California’s political climate, and the potential industry reaction;
* and vitamind [discussing the factors that contribute to long environmental impact statement preparation times](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15814/average-nepa-eis-preparation-time-in-2025/#comment-124191), and the potential difficulties in reducing the time.

We would  like to give a special shoutout to SpottedBear, who made a number of excellent comments and reached the prize cap. Way to go, SpottedBear!

There is still plenty of time to forecast in the Climate Tipping Points Tournament. The most accurate forecasters will win a share of the $2,500 accuracy prize. Join in [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/climate/)!

**Congratulations again to our commenting prize winners, SpottedBear, podar_hd, and vitamind!**

Here are all of the winning comments:¹

| Placement | User        | Question and Link to Comment                                                                                                                                                                                                 |
| --------- | ----------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 1         | SpottedBear | [Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15492/#comment-125559)                                                                  |
| 2         | SpottedBear | [Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15815/#comment-125551)                                           |
| 3         | SpottedBear | [Conditional on the disbursement of $1.8 billion in grants for charging infrastructure before 2027, what will be the number of public charging stations in 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15831/#comment-125586) |
| 4         | podar_hd    | [Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15815/#comment-126354)                                           |
| 5         | podar_hd    | [Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15489/#comment-125351)                                                                      |
| 6         | podar_hd    | [Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15492/#comment-126357)                                                                  |
| 7         | vitamind    | [What will be the average preparation time (in days) of environmental impact statements completed in 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15814/#comment-124191)                                                       |
| 8         | podar_hd    | [Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15492/#comment-126367)                                                                  |
| 9         | vitamind    | [Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15815/#comment-125890)                                           |
| 10        | podar_hd    | [Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15815/#comment-126377)                                           |

*<small>¹ We awarded 10 of the 19 prizes due to the individual prize cap being reached, and we scaled the prizes up to award the entire $2,500.</small>*