The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas against Israel, and Israel’s ongoing response, represent a significant development in the long and complex history between Israel and Palestine. This conflict is [deeply affecting civilian populations](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19362/israel-gaza-conflict-death-toll/) and may also have global implications. It leads to many questions, such as what happens next and whether there is a [risk of a larger war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67201107). At Metaculus we’ve [launched a series of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/project/israel-gaza/) that we hope sheds additional light on the present risks and potential outcomes. However, understanding such a complex issue and its potential implications is difficult, even with quantified probabilities.

A visual approach, such as mapping out Metaculus forecasts, could provide a clearer image of potential future developments and associated risks. It's in this spirit that I’ve built an experimental map depicting the conflict dynamics between Israel and Hamas, hoping to render the situation more comprehensible.

The [diagram can be found here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/metaculus-mapping/), with a preview image below. In its experimental form it’s currently hosted on my personal site, but our team is keen to consider ways that diagrams like this can be used on Metaculus.

<img src="https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/diagram_wp84G2P.jpeg" alt="Diagram of Israel / Hamas Conflict" />

I’d love your feedback on this approach. Does the visual representation through the map clarify the conflict for you? Do you think maps like these would more generally be useful, such as on additional topics? How could this tool be refined to better serve its purpose of bringing additional clarity to the conflict? Your input is invaluable and will help shape our thinking on if and how tools like this could be integrated into Metaculus, so please share your thoughts!