## May 23, 2024: Announcing the Winners

**Congratulations to** [**Mvem**](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/173843/)**, the #1 ranked forecaster in both the Open and Undergraduate Competitions, with a final score of 1,678!**

See leaderboards with the 10 top-ranked forecasters in each competition [here](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/), and you can find the full final leaderboards on the [public leaderboards page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3264/).

Metaculus will be in touch with winners to arrange paying out prize money. Bridgewater Associates is reviewing forecasters' performances and submitted resumes and plans to share more about the contest later on.

**Thank you for you participating in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest!**

*Bridgewater wants your feedback on the contest. Share your thoughts in* [*this short survey*](https://metaculus.typeform.com/to/YiWF2gIE)*.*

***

## April 30, 2024: Round 3

Round 3 questions are live! Forecast on the final set of 10 questions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/?order_by=-publish_time\&status=open), and update your predictions from the first two rounds.

***

## **April 26, 2024: School Leaderboard**

Competing in the Undergraduate contest? We just added a School Leaderboard to the main tournament page. See how forecasters from your school are faring overall and how many have made a forecast on a resolved question. (Note: The School Leaderboard doesn't impact the contest outcome.)

And remember: Only a few questions have resolved so far, and the current leaderboard is unlikely to much resemble the final outcome.

***

## **April 23, 2024: Round 2**

The second round of questions is open! Click [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/?order_by=-publish_time\&status=open) to make your predictions, and to update your forecasts from the first round.

***

## **April 19, 2024 Update**

The tournament is off to a great start! Over 600 people have submitted a forecast so far. If you haven't submitted yours yet, you're not too late. All of the first-round questions are still open, and the second round will launch on Tuesday, April 23rd.

Speaking of the second round, you'll start to see those questions being added to the tournament with an "upcoming" status. **The second round will begin at 11am ET on Tuesday**. Click [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/?status=upcoming) for an early look at the questions that have been added to the 2nd round.

***

## **Initial Post: April 16, 2024**

Hi everyone,

We're excited you're here. I'm Nate—COO at Metaculus—and over the next month, my colleagues and I will be your hosts for the competition.

We'll update this post throughout the contest with commentary and announcements. We also have a companion post, the [Q\&A thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22434/bridgewater-forecasting-contest-qa/) where you can ask questions.

**A few tips:**

* You can see all the questions at [**metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/**](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/bridgewater/).
* You'll be scored continuously, so **for the best score, submit predictions soon after questions launch**, on all questions, and update your predictions as new information arises.
* You'll also get the best score, in expectation, if you **predict your true beliefs**.
* You'll see the Community Prediction on some questions right away, while others will be hidden. That's by design; it's fun to compare your forecast to the community's, but **it takes skill to predict well absent the community aggregate.**
* We encourage you to **read the resolution criteria carefully.** The resolution criteria are the most important part of each question, because they spell out how and when a question will resolve.

If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask. In the meantime, quick thoughts:

* **The competition is only open to registered participants.** The good news is you've successfully registered, because you can see this post. If you have friends who would like to participate, please direct them to [metaculus.com/bridgewater](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) so they can register.
* **There will be three rounds of questions, and your score will be based on your performance in all three rounds.** We have 20 questions\* for you today, 20 opening at 11am EDT on Tuesday the 23rd, and 10 final questions opening at 11am ET on Tuesday the 30th.
* **If you're new to forecasting**, check out [How it Works](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/how-it-works/), which has some handy resources.
* **Bridgewater and Metaculus encourage comments**. While you'll be scored only on the accuracy of your forecasts, Bridgewater is especially interested in the reasoning of top participants. Check out our [community guidelines](https://www.metaculus.com/help/guidelines/) and comment away.
* **If you have a question or concern**, you can tag @admins in the comments on any tournament page, and a Metaculus admin will take a look. You can also ask questions in the [Q\&A thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22434/bridgewater-forecasting-contest-qa/).
* **If you notice something wrong with a question**, tag @admins in the comments. We'll try to fix it right away.
* **We'll launch leaderboards once the first question is resolved**. The competition should be tight. We're expecting over 1,000 participants in this tournament. I can't wait to see how it turns out.

Nate (@NMorrison)

* *Technically, the top of the page shows 21 questions because of the conditional pair, but one of the legs of that pair won't occur and won't be scored.*