Congratulations to the winners of our [second quarter 2024 Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup-2024q2/)! The top three finishers are:

1. [skmmcj](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/126626/)
2. [Zaldath](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/139161/)
3. [pasta](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/148850/)

A big round of applause for our winners! We will contact you soon to arrange shipment of your Metaculus-branded baseball caps. And congratulations to all the medal winners in the tournament!

This quarter saw a number of significant events including Israel commencing a ground invasion of Rafah, an escalation in Chinese aggression toward Taiwan in response to the [inauguration of Taiwanese president William Lai](https://chinapower.csis.org/china-respond-inauguration-taiwan-william-lai-joint-sword-2024a-military-exercise/), Ukraine holding onto the [strategically important town](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraines-army-retreats-from-chasiv-yar-as-russia-gets-closer-to-seizing-strategically-important-town) of Chasiv Yar in the face of a Russian push to take it, and the failure to finalize a Pandemic Agreement at the World Health Assembly.

## Forecast in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup

Get ready for the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup! We invite forecasters of all levels, from newcomers to seasoned experts, to join in and sharpen their forecasting skills. The competition starts soon, with questions opening on July 8, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/). The tournament will kick off with the following questions:

* [What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25800/french-prime-minister-party-after-2024-vote/)
* [Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25743/july-sept-2024-prc-allies-conflict-deaths/)
* [Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25767/will-dems-have-brokered-convention-in-2024/)
* [What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25840/trumps-lead-over-biden-july-15-2024/)
* [Who will win the Tour de France 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25713/tour-de-france-2024-winner/)