Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, causing a conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands and led to fears of further escalation. Prior to the invasion the situation was highly uncertain, and [observers](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60164537) [disagreed](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/9/no-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine) on whether Russia would attempt to take Ukraine. Metaculus had been monitoring this potential threat with a forecasting question about the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Metaculus community’s forecast first reached a probability of 50% on January 14, the month prior to the invasion, later updating to predict that an invasion was likely a week before it occurred.

In response to the uncertain and rapidly changing situation, and in keeping with our mission to [improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance](https://www.metaculus.com/about/), Metaculus rapidly launched a number of forecasting questions about the future trajectory of the conflict as part of the [Ukraine Conflict tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/). Forecasting questions covered the future trajectory of the war from multiple angles, including whether the Ukrainian capital would withstand the attack, the potential for invasion of other countries or escalation to a global conflict, whether a ceasefire would occur, whether NATO would expand, and control of territory.

  


  


  


  


  


  


Forecasts on these questions helped fill a gap in the public conversation. Where traditionally speculation about the conflict might take the form of strong opinions put forward in op-eds or during panel discussions on TV news programs – often using vague terminology and without later accountability – the aggregate forecasts from these questions synthesized the expectations of the forecasting community into clear probabilities tied to specific outcomes. Forecasts from the Ukraine Conflict Tournament, as well as other Metaculus forecasts on Ukraine, were featured in publications such as [*i*](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-super-forecasters-putin-troops-1475721), [*El País*](https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2022-03-26/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine-online-forecasting-communities-think-so.html), [*New America*](https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/the-uncertainty-of-the-unthinkable/), and [*Wired*](https://www.wired.com/story/micromorts-nuclear-war/), and informed and influenced the thinking of nuclear policy experts [like James Acton](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/15906/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-sort-of-love-nuclear-forecasting/).

While the Ukraine conflict sadly still rages on, the designated period for this tournament has come to an end. We’d like to recognize the contributions of the most accurate forecasters who participated in this tournament:

1. [Vang](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111881/)
2. [BoringCrab](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/122262/)
3. [isabel](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111659/)

Thank you as well to all the forecasters who contributed their forecasts and shared their reasoning, especially those whose accuracy earned them [medals](https://www.metaculus.com/help/medals-faq/) or a share of the prize pool.

You can find more details and the full leaderboard for the Ukraine Conflict Tournament [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ukraine-conflict/). Though the tournament is over, we’re continuing to track existing open questions and launch new questions about the ongoing Ukraine conflict, and we encourage forecasters to predict on these questions and share their reasoning in the comments so observers can better understand the forecasts. Our open questions about Ukraine can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?topic=ukraine-conflict).

We will be in touch with prize winners to arrange payments. We are also happy to facilitate donations to the organizations listed [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11556/donating-tournament-prizes/).