Congratulations to the winners of our [fourth quarter 2024 Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup-2024q4/)! The top three finishers are:

1. [MaxA](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/174017/)
2. [benshindel](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/123595/)
3. [ADQ](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/168191/)

A big round of applause for our winners! We will contact you soon to arrange shipment of your Metaculus-branded baseball caps. And congratulations to all the medal winners in the tournament!

*Note that in the tournament rankings* [*Sergio*](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/115725/) *placed third, however, Sergio was also a Pro Forecaster in the* [*Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/aibq4/), *which included the Quarterly Cup questions and is ineligible to win a prize in the Quarterly Cup, but gets an honorable mention.*

This quarter saw a number of significant events including controversy around some of president-elect Donald Trump's [cabinet picks](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30516/will-any-cabinet-pick-drop-out-before-january-1-2025/), a lasting [ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30476/ceasefire-between-israel-lebanonhezbollah-on-jan-1-2025/), ICC [arrest warrants issued](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29903/will-the-icc-issue-any-warrants-in-nov-or-dec-2024/) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and no [seventh nuclear test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28903/will-north-korea-perform-a-nuclear-test-before-2025/) conducted by North Korea, despite rumors suggesting otherwise.

## Forecast in the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup

Get ready for the Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup! We invite forecasters of all levels, from newcomers to seasoned experts, to join in and sharpen their forecasting skills. The competition opens January 13, and you can join [here](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/). Here are a few of the questions that will open on the first day of the tournament, and more will be added every week:

* [Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/)
* [What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/)
* [How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31366/number-of-executive-orders-in-q1-2025/)
* [How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/)