We’re pleased to announce the champions of the first-of-its-kind Conditional Cup!

1. [<u>forecastooor</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/123064/)
2. [<u>Sergio</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/115725/)
3. [<u>lubossaloky</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/135380/)

Congratulations to the top three winners and to all who won medals. The top three finishers will receive their choice of either a Metaculus-branded hoodie or hat. You can find the full tournament details and leaderboard [<u>here</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/conditional-cup/). 

The Conditional Cup was the first tournament solely focused on predicting conditional outcomes. Across more than 40 conditionals covering a wide breadth of topics, forecasters made paired predictions on outcomes of interest, depending on the outcome of a parent question. For example, forecasters assessed the likelihood of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) for avian flu contingent on human-to-human transmission, Netanyahu's continuation as Israel's Prime Minister depending on International Criminal Court arrest warrant decisions, and Trump's chances of winning Georgia in the presidential election if he secured Pennsylvania.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22446/  
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23027/  
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27944/  
Conditional forecasts help us map out how events influence one another, and we’re grateful to all forecasters who contributed to the inaugural Conditional Cup. If you’d like to forecast on more conditionals you can find open questions [<u>with this filter</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?forecast_type=conditional), and creating your own interesting conditionals is as simple as selecting two questions to link within the [<u>question creation menu</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/create/conditional/). 

**Congratulations to our champions: forecastooor, Sergio, lubossaloky!**

*Please note:* [*<u>One question was removed</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21895/) *due to a too-lengthy resolution timeline.*